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Quantum computers may challenge the cryptography that protects banks, emails, cryptocurrencies, medical data, and private communications on the internet.
The quantum threat known as Q-Day has raised a global alert in cybersecurity, as this milestone represents the moment when quantum computers could break encryption systems currently used on the internet.
According to Michele Mosca, co-founder of evolutionQ and professor at the Institute for Quantum Computing at the University of Waterloo, this will be the day when adversaries can access machines capable of deciphering cryptographic codes in use.
Financial transactions, emails, cryptocurrency wallets, medical histories, and sensitive files today rely on algorithms designed to withstand traditional computers.
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Quantum computing, however, may change this balance, as it uses a processing logic very different from conventional technology.
Technical report puts the threat on the global radar
The Quantum Threat Timeline Report, published by the Global Risk Institute on March 9, indicated that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer is “quite possible” in the next 10 years.
The same report assessed it as “likely” that this capability will emerge within 15 years, based on the opinion of 26 consulted experts.
According to the authors, many organizations may not know that they are already exposed to a level of risk considered intolerable.
This scenario is concerning because encrypted data can be stolen today and decrypted in the future, in attacks known as “harvest now, decrypt later”.
Google targets 2029 and accelerates the post-quantum race
Google stated on March 25 that it has set 2029 as the goal to ensure security in the quantum era with post-quantum cryptography.
Cloudflare has also started working with 2029 as a reference, reinforcing the urgency of the digital transition across the sector.
According to Google, this deadline reflects recent advances in quantum computing and seeks to accelerate changes in companies, governments, and technology providers.
The race gained momentum because encryption acts as an invisible framework of the digital economy, protecting pages, payments, and private communications.
Current encryption may become a target for quantum computers
The security of much of the internet relies on algorithms like RSA, created by Ron Rivest, Adi Shamir, and Leonard Adleman.
This system uses mathematical problems that are difficult for traditional computers, especially the factorization of large numbers.
Quantum computers work differently. They use qubits, which can represent 0, 1, or both simultaneously.
This property, called superposition, allows complex calculations to be processed differently and may affect cryptographic systems used today.
Cryptocurrencies enter the center of concern
Google reported on March 31 that a study indicated a reduction of about 20 times in the number of physical qubits needed to attack the mathematical basis of elliptic curve cryptography, known as ECC.
This technology protects critical parts of blockchains and cryptocurrencies.
According to Catherine Mulligan, associate researcher at Imperial College London, the study acts as a “warning shot” for the crypto sector.
Decentralized networks may face difficulties in updating their systems because they depend on consensus among engineers and participants.
Migration may take 10 to 20 years
Governments of the United States and the United Kingdom have already published standards for post-quantum encryption.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology, known as NIST, finalized in 2024 algorithms designed to withstand attacks from quantum computers.
Dustin Moody, a mathematician at NIST, stated that cryptographic migrations usually take 10 to 20 years.
A quantum computer available in five years could find a global transition still incomplete.
Medical devices also enter the risk zone
The quantum threat also concerns experts studying wireless biomedical devices, such as insulin pumps and pacemakers.
Seoyoon Jang, a PhD candidate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is working on solutions to protect these devices against quantum attacks.
These devices have energy limitations and may not support heavier security protocols.
Jang, along with colleagues, developed an ultra-efficient microchip designed to include post-quantum protection in small devices.
Q-Day may arrive before the world realizes
The latest report from the Global Risk Institute warned that secret advances in state laboratories, private companies, or malicious groups may make it difficult to accurately predict Q-Day.
The true milestone may occur before the world has public knowledge of the quantum capability needed to break current encryptions.
Governments, companies, and technology providers need to accelerate the migration to post-quantum standards because data protected today may become vulnerable tomorrow.
The internet relies on encryption to function securely; in light of this, is the digital world truly prepared to face the impact of Q-Day?
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