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A new study indicates that the Atlantic circulation may weaken much more than previously expected, raising the risk of extreme cold, droughts, sea level rise, and pressure on ecosystems and global food production.
One of the most important gears of the global climate may become much weaker this century. The new estimate suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, responsible for redistributing heat and cold between regions, could lose almost half of its strength by 2100.
The warning has gained weight because the projected decline is well above what many models indicated before. This raises alarms for climate changes in Europe, Africa, and the Americas, as well as impacts on the ocean, sea level, and food production.
The system works like a gigantic conveyor belt of water. It carries warm water from the tropics northward and returns cold water southward, helping to maintain temperatures, rainfall, and ecosystems in balance.
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Current that regulates the Atlantic sustains climate in three continents
When this circulation operates stably, it helps organize the climate over large areas of the planet. The effect appears in heat transport, rainfall dynamics, and the marine environment that sustains entire food chains.
When it loses strength, the imbalance is not restricted to the ocean. The reflection can affect temperatures, water availability, productivity in the fields, and coastal life in regions that depend on this climatic organization.
(Image credit: Portmann et al., Science Advances (2026), CC BY NC)
New calculation raises projection and approaches the risk of a tipping point
The latest estimate indicates a slowdown between 43% and 59% by the end of the century. The authors themselves point out that this represents a weakening about 60% greater than predicted by previous models.
The study was published on April 15 in the journal Science Advances and reinforces the idea that this system is closer to a critical point. In simple terms, this means reaching a stage where reversal becomes much more difficult for the global climate.
Temperature and salinity change the portrait of the Atlantic and reduce error by 79%
According to Live Science, an international site for scientific journalism and technology, the most accurate model combined sea surface temperature and salinity across the Atlantic with a less common statistical method in climate simulations.
This method reduced the prediction error by 79% compared to standard modeling. From there, the central estimate was around 51% weakening over the average from 1850 to 1900, a range that already falls into the realm of substantial loss.
Continuous monitoring only started in 2004 and still preserves uncertainties
Scientists emphasize that continuous observation of this system began only in 2004. This limits the amount of available direct measurements and helps explain why different studies still arrive at distinct rates and magnitudes of deceleration.
Even with this uncertainty, the overall picture does not indicate stability. Observations suggest that circulation is already weaker than in the reference period of the 19th century, and the debate now revolves less around the existence of weakening and more about its speed and depth.
Experts consulted in the material also reinforce that the exact timing and final intensity are still not consensus. Nevertheless, the new work is seen as concerning because it amplifies the weight of a more severe scenario.
Northern Europe, North American coast, and crops enter the impact zone
If there is a collapse, the effects could last for centuries or even millennia. Northern Europe may face a sharp drop in temperature, while areas to the south could suffer from extreme droughts.
On the northeast coast of North America, the pressure appears in the rise of sea levels. The impact may also spread through food chains and ecosystems, both in the ocean and on land.
Agriculture enters this risk map. The material points out that the area available for growing wheat and corn, which account for a large part of the calories consumed worldwide, could drop to less than half in an extreme scenario.
Weakening already demands preparation and increases pressure on climate decisions
The weight of this projection lies in the set of signals. There is observed loss of strength, a more accurate model, significant error reduction, and an estimate that places the system closer to a critical range.
There is still uncertainty about the exact outcome, but the message has become more severe. Governments and coastal regions face increased pressure to prepare now in light of a process that repositions the Atlantic and changes the strategic reading.
With information from the international scientific journalism and technology site Live Science.
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