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With The 50% Tariff Targeting Brazil, JBS, Marfrig, And Minerva Trigger Their Global Platform To Keep The US Supplied. The Secret Lies In The Redirection Of Cuts From Other Sources.
Brazilian leaders in animal protein have activated their global platform to redirect beef cuts from Australia, Uruguay, and Argentina, reducing exposure to the 50% tariff specifically applied to products from Brazil.
In the short term, the strategy maintains billion-dollar contracts in the US and helps stabilize prices, but the tight American cattle cycle indicates pressure until 2027. According to Reuters and sector data, the export record in July shows that flows are quickly reorganizing.
The “Plan B” of Brazilian meatpackers is simple to understand: selling to the US from plants outside Brazil, using the industrial network that JBS, Marfrig, and Minerva maintain in countries like Australia, Uruguay, and Argentina.
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Why The Plan B Of Brazilian Meatpackers Works
As the 50% tariff applies to goods originating from Brazil, shipping from other countries avoids the additional cost and preserves the supply to American customers. According to Reuters, the new tariff has elevated the burden on global supply chains and pressured inflation, reinforcing the incentive for alternative routes.
This arrangement gains strength because herds in the US are at their lowest level in decades, keeping the demand for imports high. The 2025 cattle inventory began at 86.7 million heads, the lowest since 1951, according to the USDA and Reuters. Short domestic supply + selective tariff on Brazil = appreciation of the global platform of Brazilian companies.
Furthermore, JBS announced US$ 200 million to expand capacity in the US, with projects in Cactus, Texas, and Greeley, Colorado, including a new distribution center and expansion of boning and grinding. The investment accelerates internal logistics to receive, process, and distribute imported or domestic products, reducing bottlenecks in the short term.
Who Has Which Doors: JBS, Marfrig, And Minerva
JBS operates in the US and Australia, in addition to its base in Brazil. In a recent conference call, management emphasized that, looking only at Friboi in Brazil, the impact of the tariff is not relevant overall, thanks to the global platform that allows for redirecting production and mitigating shocks. The company also indicated that the American cattle cycle is only expected to gradually improve starting at the end of 2027, which keeps the need for imports.
Marfrig has a key asset: the control of National Beef, a processor with operations and direct channels in the US. The Marfrig–BRF (MBRF) merger has progressed in assemblies and is under regulatory proceedings, which could enhance distribution synergies and the portfolio. In a call with investors, the company indicated that exports from Brazil to the US represent a very small portion of revenue in South America, reinforcing low dependence on the Brazil→US channel.
Minerva has geographically diversified into Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Colombia and expanded sheep meat in Australia through joint ventures. In a market statement, it acknowledged that the tariff could affect up to about 5% of annual revenue but stressed that it accesses the American market through operations in the region and in Australia, which dilutes risk.
How Much The American Market Weighs And The July Record
The US is the second largest destination for Brazilian beef, after China. Before the 50% tariff, the industry expected 400,000 tons to the American market in 2025 and warned of potential losses of up to US$ 1 billion if the surcharge advanced. After the announcement, meatpackers reassessed shipments and slowed cattle purchases in Brazil, rescheduling shipments and routes.
Even with this shock, Brazil set a historic export record in July. According to Abrafrigo, there were 366.9 thousand tons and US$ 1.726 billion in the month, maximums for a single month, supported by strong global demand and pre-emptive shipments. The data confirms that the sector adjusted quickly, diverting flows and taking advantage of price windows.
Sales to the US are expected to decline in the short term, but the total volume finds destinations in other markets and from other origins within the same companies. Revenue, therefore, depends on the mix of destinations and the logistical capacity to make Plan B work without margin losses.
What Changes In The Hamburger Until 2027
The tight cattle cycle in the US and tariff friction keep ground beef under pressure, as it is the central input for fast-food chains and retail. According to Reuters, the recomposition of the herd is expected to be slow, with gradual relief only from the end of 2027 onward.
Meanwhile, importing via alternative suppliers helps keep costs in check, but logistical costs and risk premiums may limit price drops in the short term. Without an alternative route, hamburger prices rise faster.
On the Brazilian side, the government launched a support package for exporters with credit and tax relief for sectors affected by the new charges. The measure does not resolve the American tariff but softens cash flow and provides breathing room for route adjustments while negotiations continue.
The strategy to redirect cuts through neighboring countries and Australia, supported by installed capacity and investment in the US, mitigates the shock of the tariff on Brazilian giants. The American consumer still feels pressure in the short term, but the global network of these companies keeps the market supplied until the cattle cycle begins to shift more clearly starting in 2027.
Estou preocupado com os pequenos exportadores. Os grandes conseguem se virar.