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Global air demand grew in March, but data was distorted by the US-Israel-Iran war, which closed much of the airspace in the Middle East, grounded international flights, affected cargo, and raised concerns about the supply and price of aviation kerosene.
Global air demand was affected in March by the disruption of much of the traffic in Middle Eastern countries, amidst the US-Israel-Iran war. The International Air Transport Association recorded a 2.1% increase in revenue passenger kilometers compared to March 2025, but the growth would have been 8% without the markets located in the conflict zone.
Total capacity, measured in available seat-kilometers, fell by 1.7% year-on-year. The flight load factor reached 83.6%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points compared to the same month last year.
In international traffic, the impact was clearer. Demand decreased by 0.6% in March compared to March 2025, while capacity fell by 6.2% and the load factor stood at 84.1%.
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Middle East leads decline in international flights
The overall decline in international traffic was driven by Middle Eastern airlines, which recorded a 60.8% retraction in demand compared to the previous year. The capacity of companies in the region fell by 56.9%, and the load factor stood at 67.8%, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points.
These numbers reflect the closure of much of the regional airspace during the war. International air demand, therefore, was directly harmed by operational restrictions that limited routes and reduced flight offerings.
The global growth observed in the month came from domestic performance. Internal demand rose by 6.5% compared to March 2025, while capacity grew by 5.6% and the load factor reached 83.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points.
Brazil appears among the positive highlights
Brazil was one of the positive highlights in March in the domestic market. Revenue passenger kilometers grew by 10.8%, a rate lower only than that recorded by China, which advanced by 13.7%.
The Brazilian metric for available seat-kilometers also showed a strong increase. The rise was 8.7%, again behind only China, where expansion reached 13.1% in the month.
While domestic air demand showed strength in markets like Brazil and China, pressure in the Middle East reduced the global result. The difference between markets affected by the war and others was evident in international figures.
Fuel becomes a concern for airlines
IATA Director General, Willie Walsh, warned about concerns regarding aviation kerosene in 2026, both in terms of supply and prices. The possibility of scarcity in parts of the world dependent on Gulf supplies was highlighted as a risk for the coming months, especially in Asia and Europe.
Aviation fuel prices rose by 106.6% in March year-on-year. In the same period, crude oil advanced by 43.1%, while refining margins increased by 320%.
Walsh stated that this pressure has not yet affected March traffic or future bookings. Nevertheless, there is still no clarity on the point at which elevated prices might begin to change passenger behavior.
The Northern Hemisphere summer still looks like a normally busy period for travel. However, the resilience of airlines is being tested, and the stabilization of fuel supply and price has been treated as a crucial point.
Air cargo suffers stronger decline in March
In the global air cargo market, the impact of the conflict was more sensitive. Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, fell by 4.8% compared to March 2025, with a 5.5% drop in international operations.
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers, decreased by 4.7% year-on-year. Considering only international flights, the retraction was 6.8%.
The decline occurred at a time of expansion in global industrial production and goods trade. In February, global industrial production grew by 3.1% year-on-year, marking the 38th consecutive month of increase, while global goods trade rose by 8.0%.
Trade routes pressure global results
Middle Eastern airlines had the worst regional performance in air cargo. Demand fell 54.3% in March, while capacity decreased by 52.4% compared to the previous year.
The largest losses came from Europe-Middle East routes, down 57.6%, Middle East-Asia, down 58.6%, and Europe-North America, down 3.4%. Other trade routes showed gains, but they did not offset the weight of losses on these connections.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, air cargo demand grew by 1.8% between March 2025 and March 2026. The region’s capacity increased by 5.1%, while cargo networks continue to adjust operations in the face of geopolitical, tariff, and operational pressures that also affect global air demand.
With information from Infomoney
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