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Analysts debate whether the war in Ukraine could end in 2025, assessing geopolitical and strategic factors that could influence the outcome of the conflict.
A war in ukraine, which in February 2025 marks four years since the start of the large-scale Russian-led invasion, remains one of the most devastating and complex conflicts in the contemporary world.
With cities destroyed, thousands of lives lost and an impact deep in global security, the possibility of an end to the confrontation next year has been the subject of intense debate among analysts and political leaders. See all the details of ukrainian war.
What's new
The year 2025 will begin with a major element of uncertainty: the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.
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Trump's return to the White House, scheduled for January 20, raises expectations about the fulfillment of his promise to negotiate an end to the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Experts believe that Trump's plan to broker a deal between Kiev and Moscow could bring a new direction to the conflict.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov recently announced that the four Ukrainian regions annexed by Moscow – Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk – would be completely under Russian control by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reinforces that the country's Constitution does not allow the cessation of territories, rejecting any idea of freezing the conflict.
Why does it matter
The situation in Eastern Europe is critical. Russian advances in the Donetsk region and Ukrainian difficulties in maintaining positions conquered in the Kursk region create a scenario of attrition and instability.
Russia's attrition tactics continue to erode Ukrainian defenses, while Western allies face dilemmas over whether to continue providing military and financial support to Kiev.
Cedomir Nestorovic, academic co-director of the Center for Geopolitics and Business at ESSEC, believes that 2025 will be a decisive year. According to him, “Russian attrition tactics ensure small daily advances, putting pressure on Ukraine to negotiate before it is too late".
US support for Ukraine is also a key piece of this puzzle, and potential changes in foreign policy under Trump add complexity to the picture.
What to know
Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the French newspaper Le Parisien that the United States will not have full access to Ukraine's military and diplomatic intelligence until Trump takes office.
This creates a strategic gap for the new US administration, whose transition team has been working on a plan that includes strict conditions for continued aid to Ukraine.
Keith Kellogg, Trump's appointee to Ukraine and Russia, co-authored a paper suggesting that US aid to Kiev should be frozen until direct negotiations with Moscow took place.
This freeze, however, would be accompanied by measures to prevent Russian advances, maintaining limited assistance through NATO, without Ukraine formally joining the alliance.
Divergent opinions on the Ukrainian War
While some analysts see Trump's actions as an opportunity to end the conflict, others fear his reluctance to maintain the US role as the main military supplier could weaken Kiev.
Aurélien Colson, professor of political science at ESSEC Business School, suggests that Trump’s “peace through strength” approach could lead to an armed ceasefire.
"Putin, out of fear of new military assets supplied to Ukraine, and Zelensky, to avoid a halt in US support, could be brought to the negotiating table”, explains Colson.
On the other hand, Edgar Bellow, Professor of International Management and Geopolitics at NEOMA Business School, believes that the most likely scenario is a frozen conflict. According to him, this would involve “unresolved territorial disputes and periodic escalations”, maintaining a situation of instability in the region.
What people are saying
Global leaders and analysts have expressed contrasting views on the future of the conflict:
- Vladimir Putin: “We are ready for negotiations and compromises,” the Russian president said on December 19 during his annual question-and-answer session.
- Volodymyr Zelensky: “Trump knows about my desire not to rush things at the expense of Ukraine,” the Ukrainian president said in an interview with Le Parisien.
- Donald Trump: “We are trying to end the war,” the US president-elect said at a press conference.
- Cedomir Nestorovic: “The loss of territory for Ukraine does not mean a permanent loss. Many formulas can be invented to suit both sides.”
- Yuriy Boyechko: “Everyone wants peace, we want peace more than anyone else, but I don’t believe that active fighting will end any time soon,” said the CEO and founder of the charity Hope for Ukraine.
What comes next
Trump’s rise to power in January 2025 will be a pivotal moment for the course of the conflict. Although the president-elect has promised to prioritize negotiations, Vladimir Putin’s intentions and Zelensky’s resistance to ceding territory suggest that an agreement will not be easily reached.
Putin, for his part, continues to direct massive resources toward war. The Russian budget for 2025 allocates 40% (about $142 billion) to defense and national security, demonstrating his willingness to prolong the conflict.
"He is used to living under sanctions and his political survival depends on war.”, said Yuriy Boyechko.
The immediate future appears to bring more questions than answers. Any outcome in 2025 will depend on a complex combination of factors, including international pressure, Ukrainian resistance, and the unpredictable dynamics of global politics under the Trump administration.
However, one thing is certain: the world will continue to closely watch every move in the attempt to resolve one of the most challenging conflicts of our time.
I liked the article, it clarifies doubts about the conflict and the interests of the countries.