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A single solar storm can knock out satellites, disable GPS, and leave 40 million people without power for months — and the transformers that protect the grid take 4 years to manufacture
According to the USGS (United States Geological Survey), a large-scale solar storm could leave between 20 and 40 million Americans without electricity. Furthermore, the blackout could last from 16 days to two years, depending on the speed of replacement of the damaged transformers.
In fact, Lloyd’s of London estimates that the global cost of a catastrophic solar event could reach $9.1 trillion — equivalent to 1.4% of the world GDP destroyed at once.
Therefore, a solar storm is not science fiction. It is an event that has happened before, will happen again, and for which the world is unprepared.
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Consequently, with the Sun at the peak of Cycle 25 in 2025-2026, experts consider the risk higher than at any time in the last 20 years.
The Carrington Event: when the Sun almost destroyed the telegraph civilization
The largest solar storm ever recorded occurred in 1859 and became known as the Carrington Event. According to historical accounts, the geomagnetic storm caused sparks in telegraph lines, ignited stations, and generated auroras visible in the Caribbean and Colombia.
At that time, the world’s electrical infrastructure consisted of telegraph wires. Still, the impact was devastating. In other words, the Sun hit the only electrical system that existed — and knocked it down.
In this sense, if a Carrington event were to happen today, the impact would be incomparably greater. The world of 2026 relies on electricity, satellites, GPS, and the internet for absolutely everything — from traffic lights to surgeries, banking transactions, and water supply.
The weakest link: transformers that take 4 years to manufacture
According to electrical infrastructure experts cited by Space.com, the greatest risk of a solar storm lies in high voltage transformers — giant equipment that converts electricity from one voltage to another throughout the grid.
Additionally, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) generated by the solar storm can heat these transformers to the point of permanent destruction.
In practice, a single high voltage transformer weighs between 100 and 400 tons, costs up to $10 million, and takes 12 to 18 months to manufacture on demand — with no stock available. Especially since most are no longer produced in the United States.
Thus, if hundreds of transformers were to be destroyed simultaneously by a solar storm, replacement could take a decade.
Just as the Angra 3 nuclear plant faces supply bottlenecks that delay construction for decades, the global electrical grid depends on components that simply cannot be mass-produced.
GPS, internet, and aviation: everything that depends on space could stop
Equally vulnerable are the satellites in orbit. According to the USGS, an extreme solar storm could permanently damage communication, GPS, weather forecasting, and earth observation satellites.
To give an idea, the GPS system — which guides airplanes, ships, transportation apps, and global logistics — relies on 31 satellites operating simultaneously. If a solar storm were to damage half of them, the world would lose positioning for months.
Moreover, civil aviation depends on shortwave radio for communication over oceans. As demonstrated by the X2.5 eruptions of April 2026, even moderate solar explosions can cause communication blackouts of up to an hour.
In an extreme solar storm, these blackouts could last for days — forcing the cancellation of all transoceanic flights.
1989: the solar storm that left 6 million without power
The most recent and concrete precedent occurred in March 1989. According to reports from CBS News, a geomagnetic storm knocked out the entire electrical grid of the province of Quebec, Canada, in just 92 seconds.
In total, 6 million people were left without power for 9 hours — in the middle of the Canadian winter, with temperatures below -20°C.
However, the 1989 storm was classified as moderate compared to a Carrington event. By comparison, a modern Carrington is estimated to be 10 to 50 times more powerful.
Despite this, the world has invested very little in protection since then. On the other hand, countries like Finland and Sweden have installed protective capacitors on key transformers — but most countries, including Brazil and the United States, have not done the same.
Brazil is especially vulnerable — and almost no one talks about it
Still, the risk is not limited to high latitude countries. According to researchers, Brazil has some of the longest power transmission lines in the world — some over 2,000 kilometers long.
According to experts from USP, the longer the line, the greater the current induced by a geomagnetic storm. Therefore, the Brazilian electrical system is particularly susceptible to damage in transformers during extreme solar events.
On the other hand, Brazil still does not have a specific national contingency plan for solar storms — unlike countries like the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada, which have already published reports and emergency protocols.
The United States government published a report in 2026 classifying extreme solar storms among the five greatest natural threats to the country — alongside earthquakes, pandemics, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis.
According to the report, the difference is that all other threats are localized. A solar storm, on the other hand, affects the entire planet simultaneously — with no possibility of international assistance, because all countries would be hit at the same time.
Moreover, the European Space Agency launched the Vigil mission in 2025, a sentinel satellite positioned at the Lagrange point L5 to monitor the Sun and provide alerts up to 5 days in advance.
However, 5 days’ notice is not enough to protect transformers that take 4 years to manufacture. The alert serves only to shut down critical systems preventively — which by itself would cause billions in economic losses.
Consequently, experts advocate for the creation of strategic reserves of high voltage transformers — similar to the strategic petroleum reserves that already exist. The cost would be between $100 million and $500 million — a fraction of the $9 trillion in potential damages.
According to solar cycle data, the Sun reaches peaks of activity every 11 years. The current cycle (25) is particularly active — with the smoothed sunspot number reaching 157 in August 2024, well above predictions.
Will the world wait for the next catastrophic solar storm to happen to invest in protection — or will it act preventively while there is still time? The Carrington Event occurred in 1859. Statistically, another is overdue.
In the end, the question is not whether an extreme solar storm will hit Earth — it is when. According to scientists, the probability of a Carrington-level event in the next 10 years is 12%. Still, the world continues to treat this threat as science fiction, while $9 trillion in infrastructure remains unprotected.
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