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Prices Responded to Climate Uncertainties and International Market Behavior, Maintaining Positive Trend
March was marked by strong fluctuations in the international coffee market. Climate instability and uncertainty surrounding the Brazilian harvest of 2025 dominated coffee price movements.
The weather in Brazil and Vietnam, the two major producers, remained in the spotlight.
Brazilian Harvest on Alert
The prolonged drought of 2024 and high temperatures caused significant losses in arabica coffee production in Brazil.
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Sea level rise could engulf farmland in 14 countries and sparks a warning for a food production crisis in Europe and North Africa, researchers say.
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The Iranian ship Delruba, sanctioned by the US, docked in Santa Catarina with 60,000 tons of urea valued at US$ 24.4 million, and the episode is back in the debate amidst the current fertilizer crisis because Brazil imports 85% of what it consumes and urea has already soared 50% in 30 days.
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Japan asked and Cerrado Mineiro delivered: 8.4 tons of special decaffeinated coffee with a score of 84 depart from Santos heading to Tokyo, a volume that exceeds by more than 900% everything Brazil exported of this product in all of 2025.
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Mato Grosso do Sul’s pork exports skyrocket, growing 125% in a few years, and now the state is banking on the Bioceanic Route to shorten the path to Asia.
Meanwhile, robusta performed better. In March, the return of humidity to Brazilian coffee regions was welcomed, albeit irregularly.
The forecast for more consistent rainfall, especially in Minas Gerais, reduced water stress.
This caused the market to retreat from its highs, keeping the May contract away from the 400-cent-per-pound mark.
According to Gil Barabach, a consultant at Safras & Mercado, weather conditions remain a determining factor. “The humidity returned, and this brought some relief. But the situation still requires attention,” he stated.
Vietnam Also Pressures Prices
In Vietnam, the rains were also irregular. The lack of moisture contributed to price volatility in robusta.
With the forecast of rain in the coming days, the market began a correction. This movement in London directly affected arabica prices in New York, pulling values down.
Despite these corrections, volatility is expected to continue. The low physical supply of coffee is one of the reasons. “This combination of climate uncertainty and limited availability tends to keep the market unstable,” evaluated Barabach.
Historical High and Corrections
The May contract in New York reached a record on March 5: 409.95 cents per pound. However, the market corrected in the following weeks. On the 14th, prices hit the month’s low, at 373.25 cents.
The fluctuation of the dollar, coupled with trade tensions involving the U.S., also affected the sector. As of March 27, the May contract rose by 1.5%, closing at 378.80 cents.
Slow Internal Market, but With Appreciation
In Brazil, sales were slow in March. With limited supply and cautious sellers, transactions were sporadic. In Southern Minas, good-quality arabica rose by 3.6%, closing at R$ 2,560.00 per sack. Meanwhile, robusta type 7, in Vitória (ES), had a slight increase of 0.25%, going to R$ 1,980.00.
The expectation now revolves around the arrival of the new harvest.
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