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Experts Warn: Brazil Is on the Brink of a Fuel Crisis! The Discrepancy in Gasoline and Diesel Prices Compared to the International Market Reaches Alarming Levels, and Petrobras May Have to Adjust Prices.
Imagine a scenario where fuel stations across the country begin to ration gasoline and diesel, truck drivers face difficulties in completing their routes, and public transportation operates on a limited basis.
Although it seems alarmist, this possibility is on the radar of experts who point to an imminent risk of fuel shortages in Brazil.
According to an analysis by BTG Pactual, the discrepancy in gasoline and diesel prices compared to the international market has reached concerning levels.
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As published by the Valor Investe portal, currently, gasoline has a discrepancy of 11%, while diesel reaches 18%, the largest difference since the adoption of the new fuel pricing model in 2023.
Impact on Petrobras’ Results
Analysts Luiz Carvalho, Pedro Soares, and Henrique Pérez highlight that the current pricing model may destroy value for Petrobras.
While a return to international parity could assist in generating cash flow, fluctuations in the price of oil and its recent increase end up offsetting the lost value in fuels.
Risk of Shortages and Dependence on Imports
The main warning from experts is that keeping prices well below international parity increases the risk of shortages.
Brazil relies on imports to meet demand, especially for diesel.
If domestic prices are not attractive to importers, there may be a reduction in supply, leading to potential shortages.
Pressure for Adjustments and Inflation
The discrepancy in fuel prices also raises concerns about inflation.
According to the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom), the average discrepancy of diesel at Petrobras refineries compared to the price practiced in the Gulf of Mexico reached 22%, while gasoline was at 13%.
This difference increases the pressure for Petrobras to adjust prices, which could directly impact the consumer price index.
Petrobras’ Positioning
Petrobras has adopted a pricing strategy that aims to avoid passing market volatility onto consumers.
The company’s CEO, Magda Chambriard, stated that Petrobras’ commercial strategy ensures competitive prices compared to other supply options, mitigating international market volatility.
However, analysts point out that this approach may not be sustainable in the long term, especially in light of the risk of shortages.
International Scenario and Logistical Challenges
International events also influence the fuel scenario in Brazil.
A gas leak that forced a partial shutdown at Europe’s largest refinery in Rotterdam is complicating the production of refined fuels, especially diesel and aviation kerosene.
These external factors can aggravate the supply of fuels in the global market, directly impacting import-dependent countries like Brazil.
Analysts’ Recommendations
Given this scenario, BTG Pactual maintains a buy recommendation for Petrobras’ shares, with a price target of US$ 20 for the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), representing a potential upside of 45.8% over the recent closing.
Analysts believe that, despite challenges, the company has solid fundamentals and can benefit from adjustments in its pricing policy.
Warning Signal
The possible fuel shortage in Brazil raises an alert for the need for adjustments in Petrobras’ pricing policy.
Balancing the maintenance of competitive prices for consumers and ensuring attractivity for importers is crucial to avoid shortages and inflationary pressures.
The scenario requires attention from both the government and the state-owned company to ensure supply and economic stability.
And you, are you prepared to face a possible fuel shortage in the country? Share your opinion in the comments!
Bom dia prezados gostaria de saber qual contato da comperj para protocolar denuncia sobre comportamento **** de uma funcionária
O Brasil tem uma das maiores reservas de petróleo do mundo. Aí eu leio essa reportagem porca…
Picaretagem a VISTA BRASIL… OU, PURO FAKE, 🤣. AONDE FALTA DE COMBUSTÍVEL? É MUITA RESENHA COM ENCHIMENTO DE LINGUIÇA VIU?😂