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The President of the CNI Sounds a Strategic Alert About the Future of the Brazilian Industry in the Face of the Growing Dependence on China and the Risk of Economic Stagnation, Advocating Immediate Actions to Avoid a New Era of Productive Submission.
The Trade Relationship Between Brazil and China Continues to Grow, But Experts Are Already Warning About the Dangers of Excessive Dependence That Could Compromise the Country’s Industrial Development.
In an article published in CNN Brazil, Ricardo Alban, Entrepreneur and President of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), Highlights That Brazil Risks Becoming an “Industrial Colony” of China if It Does Not Invest in Its Productive and Technological Capacity.
According to Alban, the Bilateral Trade Balance Shows a Concerning Picture: Despite the Growing Volume of Exchanges, Brazil Maintains a Vulnerable Position, Exporting Mainly Commodities and Importing Manufactured Products on a Large Scale.
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According to the article, in 2024, China Accounted for 28% of Brazilian Exports, Equivalent to US$ 94.4 Billion, and 24.2% of Imports, Totaling US$ 63.6 Billion.
However, this relationship Hides a Structural Deficit in the Manufacturing Industry, with a Gap of About R$ 45 Billion in Manufactured Products.
“Brazil Is Exporting More and More Commodities but Is Unable to Add Value to Its Industrial Production,” Warns Ricardo Alban. “This Makes Us Dependent and Hostages to Global Supply Chains Controlled by China.”
The Strategic Role of the Industry and Alban’s Warning
According to the President of the CNI, the Manufacturing Industry Is a Fundamental Pillar for Sustainable Economic Growth and the Generation of Skilled Jobs in the Country.
Even Representing 14.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Industry Accounts for Almost Half of Goods and Services Exports (47.6%) and Over 60% of Business Investments in Research and Development (62.4%).
Furthermore, According to Alban, It Is Responsible for More Than a Quarter of Federal Tax Revenues (25.6%).
For Him, the Concentration of Brazilian Exports in Primary Products Limits the Country’s Ability to Develop Technologically and Reduces Its Potential for Innovation, “Which Causes Brazil to Continue Depending on Chinese Demand for Soybeans, Ore, and Oil Instead of Becoming a Global Supplier of High Value-Added Industrial Products.”
Strategies for the Future: Innovation and Productive Chain
According to Alban, Brazil Urgently Needs to Rethink Its Industrial Policy and Seek Ways to Compete Beyond Price, Focusing on Innovation, Technology, and Product Quality.
As he Highlights, the Country Should Invest in “Market Niches That Value Technical Differentiation, Design, and Personalized Service, Such as Local Production of Agricultural Machinery, Still Dominated by Chinese Imports.”
In Addition, Alban Advocates for the Creation of Productive Chains with Chinese Companies, Which Include the Installation of Industrial Hubs in Brazil, Favoring the Use of Inputs and Parts Manufactured Locally.
This Strategy, According to Him, Can Promote Technology Transfer, Industrial Development, and Job Creation, Avoiding Mere Assembly of Imported Products.
Chinese Investments: Advancement and Challenges
Alban Emphasizes That, in Recent Years, the Presence of Chinese Companies in Brazil Has Grown Significantly, Especially in the Automotive and Electronics Sectors, with Units Established in States Like Bahia, Goiás, and Amazonas.
An Example Cited Is the Partnership with the Windey Energy Technology Group Co., Which Plans to Build Factories for Wind Turbines and Energy Storage Systems on the SENAI CIMATEC Campus in Bahia, Including Research in Green Hydrogen.
Despite These Advances, He Warns That There Is Still a Lack of a Clear Policy to Ensure That These Investments “Are Not Just Assembly Platforms, but Truly Contribute to the Development of the Brazilian Industry.”
Commodities Versus Industrialization: The Brazilian Dilemma
In His Article, Ricardo Alban Highlights an Emblematic Example of the Lack of Value Addition in the Brazilian Economy: the Export of Ethanol to China, Which Uses It to Produce Aviation Fuel, Later Sold at a High Added Value.
For Alban, This Represents a Repetition of a Historical Model in Which Brazil “Supplies Raw Materials While Other Countries Reap the Gains of Industrialization and Commercialization.”
He Warns That This Pattern “Reproduces a Cycle of Economic and Technological Dependence That Needs to Be Broken Urgently.”
Opportunities in the Energy Transition and Clean Technology
According to Alban, Brazil Has the Potential to Lead the Global Energy Transition Due to Its Clean Electrical Matrix and Abundance of Renewable Resources.
This Creates Opportunities to Attract Investments in Sustainable Data Centers and Innovative Technologies, Such as Super Batteries and Advanced Storage Systems.
“While Countries Like the United States and China Use Thermal Power to Fuel Their Data Centers, Brazil Can Stand Out by Offering 100% Clean Energy,” Highlights Alban, Emphasizing Brazil’s Competitive Advantage.
The Risk of Deindustrialization and the Urgency of Strategic Policies
According to Ricardo Alban, the Absence of a Robust Industrial Policy Could Deepen the Imbalance in the Trade Balance and Increase the Country’s Dependence on the Primary Sector.
He Reminds That the Recent Visit of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to China Resulted in a Series of Agreements Focused on Energy, Infrastructure, and Technological Education, but Emphasizes That It Is Necessary to Ensure That These Commitments Bring Real Benefits to the National Industry.
“We Cannot Give Up Our Productive and Technological Capacity. It Is Essential That the Relationship with China Is One of Mutual Gains and Joint Development, and Not a New Form of Economic Colonialism,” Concludes Alban.
The Future of Brazil in the Global Economy
Ricardo Alban’s Message is Clear: Brazil Has the Opportunity to Take Center Stage in the Global Economy, but This Requires Political Will, Investment in Innovation, and a Strategic Vision That Values the Manufacturing Industry.
Only Then Can the Country Avoid the Risk of Being a Mere Industrial Colony, Exporting Only Raw Materials and Importing Manufactured Products, and Finally Ensure a More Autonomous and Sustainable Future for Its Economy.
Do You Agree with Ricardo Alban’s Analysis? What Should Be Brazil’s Role in Light of the Chinese Expansion? Share Your Opinion!
Eu concordo plenamente