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Brazil is growing less than its neighbors, even with a direct advantage in oil amid the global crisis. According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country is unable to transform the favorable external scenario into a more consistent economic advance. At the same time, Venezuela can access up to $5 billion, a move that alters the regional balance and pressures Brazil’s strategic positioning.
This contrast highlights, above all, a significant change in the economic dynamics of Latin America, at a time when energy, geopolitics, and growth are increasingly interconnected.
IMF points to growth below the regional average
According to the latest IMF report, Brazil is expected to grow about 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. Although positive, these numbers are below the Latin American average, which is projected to reach 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively.
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In practice, this means that while the country is expanding, it is losing relative momentum within the region itself.
Moreover, the scenario draws attention because it occurs precisely at a time when energy exporters, like Brazil, tend to benefit from rising oil prices in the international market.
Oil advantage has limited impact
Although Brazil is part of the group of countries favored by the appreciation of oil, the direct impact on economic growth is relatively small.
According to the IMF, the estimated gain is only 0.2 percentage points in GDP — an amount that, by itself, is not enough to significantly change the pace of the economy.
This happens because, while the country benefits from exports, it also faces factors that limit growth, such as:
- high production costs
- more restrictive financial conditions
- slowdown of the global economy
Thus, the final result is moderate growth, without fully taking advantage of the favorable external moment.
Meanwhile, Venezuela returns to the financial radar
In parallel, Venezuela is beginning to chart a different path. After years of economic isolation, the country has resumed dialogue with the IMF and can access up to $5 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDR).
Although the amount does not yet represent a definitive financing program, it signals a possible rapprochement with international organizations and an opening for new capital flows.
This movement, therefore, may represent an important inflection point in the Venezuelan economic trajectory, which has suffered one of the greatest crises in recent history.
Change in the economic balance of the region
The combination of these two factors — slower growth in Brazil and Venezuela’s re-entry into the international financial system — tends to alter the regional economic balance.
On one hand, Brazil maintains its position as the largest economy in Latin America, with a strong presence in commodities and global markets.
On the other hand, the advancement of neighboring countries, especially those driven by energy and natural resources, creates a new competitive environment.
Furthermore, recent examples show that smaller countries can grow more rapidly when they manage to transform natural resources into investment and economic development — as seen with oil-driven economies in the region.
Why Brazil does not keep up with the pace of its neighbors
The Brazilian performance is linked to structural factors that go beyond the external scenario.
Among the main points are:
- low capacity to transform export gains into internal growth
- structural bottlenecks in the economy
- high dependence on commodities
- fiscal and investment limitations
In this context, even with specific advantages, the country faces difficulties in accelerating consistently.
Energy and geopolitics redefine the economic scenario
The current global energy crisis reinforces the strategic importance of oil and gas producing countries.
However, the economic impact depends not only on production but also on the ability to transform this advantage into internal development, industrialization, and innovation.
At the same time, the reorganization of global energy chains and the geopolitical dispute among major powers create new opportunities — but also increase competition.
What to expect in the coming months
The economic performance of Brazil and the region will depend on some key factors, such as:
- evolution of oil prices
- global geopolitical stability
- internal economic policies
- Venezuela’s (or not) return to the international scene
In this way, although Brazil continues to be a relevant player, the current scenario indicates that merely having natural resources is not enough to lead regional growth.
What is at stake for Brazil
The current moment places the country in front of a strategic choice.
On one hand, there is the opportunity to take advantage of the positive commodity cycle, especially oil. On the other hand, there is the risk of continuing to grow below potential, while neighbors advance at a faster pace.
Thus, the central challenge becomes transforming external advantages into sustainable growth — something that, so far, the numbers show has not yet been fully achieved.
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