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Growth at the beginning of 2026 places Brazil back among the largest global economies, with advances in agriculture, industry, and services, in addition to IMF projections indicating surpassing Canada in the ranking measured in current dollars.
The Brazilian economy grew 1.1% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous three months, in the seasonally adjusted series, and is expected to return this year to the group of the world’s ten largest economies, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund.
Released by IBGE this Friday, May 29, the result shows acceleration compared to the end of 2025, a year in which GDP ended with a cumulative increase of 2.3%.
According to IMF estimates, Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product measured in current dollars is expected to reach about US$ 2.64 trillion in 2026, a value sufficient to surpass Canada, projected at approximately US$ 2.51 trillion.
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With this nominal performance, Brazil would occupy the 10th position among the largest global economies, according to the latest data from the international organization.
The result of the first quarter was above the variations recorded at the end of 2025, when the economy had grown 0.3% in the fourth quarter and 0.1% in the third, according to the revised series from IBGE.
Compared to the same period of the previous year, GDP advanced 1.8%, while the accumulated in four quarters reached 2.0%.
Agriculture, industry, and services sustain the rise of Brazilian GDP
The quarterly increase had a positive contribution from the three major sectors of the economy, with emphasis on agriculture, which grew 2.0% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.
There was also an advance in industry, with an increase of 1.0%, while services, the segment with the greatest weight in Brazilian GDP, recorded an expansion of 0.5% in the same interval.
In current values, Brazilian GDP totaled R$ 3.3 trillion between January and March 2026, according to data released by IBGE.
Of this total, R$ 2.8 trillion corresponded to the value added at basic prices, and R$ 461.2 billion came from taxes on products net of subsidies.
From the demand perspective, household consumption also contributed to the positive performance, with an increase of 1.7% compared to the first quarter of 2025.
In the same type of comparison, government consumption rose 2.8%, while Gross Fixed Capital Formation, a measure of productive investment, fell 1.4%.
Return to the top 10 also depends on the exchange rate
The comparison between the world’s largest GDPs is made by the IMF in current dollars, a criterion that considers both the production of each economy and the conversion of local currencies to the US dollar.
For this reason, the international ranking does not only reflect the real growth of countries, as changes in the exchange rate can alter the GDP value when converted to dollars.
When the real appreciates or the dollar weakens against the Brazilian currency, Brazil’s GDP in dollars increases even if the real economy maintains the same pace of expansion.
This exchange rate movement is one of the factors that explain changes in the international ranking, especially among economies with close nominal values.
In the Brazilian case, the latest IMF projection indicates that the country should surpass Canada in 2026, after having been out of the group of the ten largest economies in previous years.
The projected list for this year has the United States and China in the first two positions, followed by Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, India, France, Italy, Russia, and Brazil.
According to the IMF numbers, the US economy is expected to total about US$ 32.38 trillion in 2026, while China appears with a value close to US$ 20.85 trillion.
In the same database, Brazil, with US$ 2.64 trillion, is close to Russia, estimated at US$ 2.66 trillion, and below the European economies that appear ahead in the ranking.
IMF projects 1.9% growth for Brazil in 2026
The IMF projects 1.9% growth for the Brazilian GDP in 2026, according to the World Economic Outlook database of April.
This estimate indicates slower expansion than recorded in 2025, but still compatible with the nominal dollar advance expected for the Brazilian economy this year.
In the global scenario, the Fund estimates 3.1% growth in 2026, with revision influenced by energy shocks and greater international uncertainty.
In the presentation of the April report, the organization stated that its baseline scenario considers a short-term conflict and moderate increase in energy prices, as well as risks of worsening financial and inflationary conditions.
The relative improvement of Brazil in the ranking, therefore, combines real growth, exchange rate conversion, and the comparative performance of other economies.
As projections depend on variables subject to revision, this type of classification can change with alterations in exchange rates, statistical adjustments, and changes in the expansion pace of the compared countries.
Total GDP does not mean higher income per inhabitant
Although Brazil is close to returning to the group of the ten largest economies, the absolute size of GDP alone does not measure the population’s income level.
Very populous countries tend to produce larger volumes of goods and services, but this production needs to be divided by the number of inhabitants to indicate average income.
For this reason, economists also observe GDP per capita, an indicator that relates the size of the economy to the population of each country.
In this metric, Brazil appears in a lower position than in the total GDP ranking, due to the combination of a large population and an average income lower than that of economies with higher per capita income.
According to the IMF database, Brazilian GDP per capita in current dollars is projected to be around US$ 12.31 thousand in 2026.
The Fund itself reports that the country’s population is approximately 214.1 million inhabitants, a number that helps explain the difference between Brazil’s position in the economic size ranking and its placement in income per person.
This difference also explains why small countries can appear among the richest when the indicator considered is GDP per capita.
Economies with a small population and high production per inhabitant tend to lead this type of comparison, even without being among the largest absolute GDPs on the planet.
Brazil may gain positions among the largest economies by 2031
The IMF estimates extend to 2031 and indicate that Brazil may gain new positions in the coming years if growth, exchange rate, and relative performance projections are confirmed.
This trajectory still depends on internal and external factors, including interest rates, inflation, public accounts, global trade, commodity prices, and revision of the data used in international projections.
The Brazilian movement occurs in a scenario of changes in the relative position of large economies, with emphasis on India.
According to the IMF, the Asian country is expected to continue gaining participation in global GDP over the coming years, driven by a large population, expansion of activity, and an increase in income in dollars.
For Brazil, returning to the top 10 in 2026 indicates an increase in the nominal size of the economy in the international comparison, but it does not summarize all the indicators used to assess economic performance.
In addition to total GDP, metrics such as productivity, investment, income per capita, and income distribution help measure the composition and effects of growth on the population.
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