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Dependence on the American Market Reaches 98% in Some Products; Tariffs Imposed by the U.S. Increase Risks and Pressure Brazilian Productive Chains This Year
Data from the Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), from FGV Ibre, reveal a picture of strong concentration of Brazilian exports in the American market. Ten of the main products shipped to the United States show over 80% dependence on this destination. The survey reinforces the importance of the trading partner but also exposes risks in times of tariffs.
Most Dependent Products on the American Market
The product with the highest concentration is profiled coniferous wood. Almost all production destined for export goes to the United States, reaching 98% of the total.
Just this year, the country has already purchased US$ 189 million of this Brazilian item. Closely following are bovine tallow and semi-manufactured steel alloy products.
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It’s worth noting that, among the most relevant products, airplanes stand out as an important exception. They were excluded from the tariff and recorded the highest export value to the U.S. between January and July 2025, with US$ 654 million.
Additionally, other items on the list show similar percentages. Wood doors and frames, liquid dielectric transformers, and stone blocks also have over 80% of their external sales concentrated in the United States.
Trade Balance and Recent Variations
The month of July recorded the largest growth in export volume compared to 2024 and 2025. The growth was 6.9%, while imports rose 6.5%. Therefore, the exported volume exceeded the imported volume.
The issue is that the average prices of exports fell by 1.9% during the period, while import prices rose by the same percentage. The result is that, in value, imports grew more than exports.
When analyzing by sectors, manufacturing led the volume variation with a 5.7% increase. The extractive sector rose by 1.2%, and agriculture fell by 3%.
FGV Ibre forecasts a surplus of about US$ 62 billion in 2025, provided that no new surprises occur.
The Impact of Tariffs
The U.S. government’s decision to impose tariffs on Brazilian products has strongly affected trade. Out of the 30 main exported items, 18 did not receive exemptions and began to pay the additional tariff. Among them, 13.3% have more than 30% dependence on the American market.
This puts pressure on sectors like steel, which is facing challenges in redirecting sales since the productive chains are specialized.
The Brazilian government announced credit lines and support for small and medium-sized enterprises, but immediate diversification remains a challenge.
Among the most affected sectors are meat and coffee. In the case of meats, the accumulated tariff reaches 74%.
The United States purchased 12% of the volume shipped by Brazil in the first half of 2025. Brazilian coffee represents over 30% of American imports. For Brazil, the U.S. accounts for 16% of total coffee exports, according to Cecafé.
Coffee and Its Relevance
Brazil exported 50.6 million 60-kilo bags to 120 destinations in 2024. The United States topped the list with 8.1 million bags. Following were Germany, Belgium, Italy, and Japan.
This scenario shows the relevance of the American market for Brazilian coffee but also its vulnerability to tougher trade policies. The sector is one of those most immediately affected by the tariffs.
Sectors Exempt from Tariffs
Despite the additional tariffs, some sectors have escaped the measures. The four main ones were oil, orange, cellulose, and aviation. These products remained exempt from the 50% rate.
On the other hand, steel, aluminum, and copper were taxed. The effective charge, however, was set at 19.5% after adjustments based on national security arguments defined in February. The tariffs took effect in March.
The List of Exceptions
An executive order published on July 30 by the U.S. government excluded 694 Brazilian products from the additional charge. These exceptions represent US$ 18.4 billion in exports.
Among the sectors included, fuels accounted for US$ 8.5 billion. Aircraft followed with US$ 2 billion. Iron and steel accounted for US$ 1.8 billion, while cellulose reached US$ 1.7 billion.
Fruits, furniture, chemicals, machinery, precious stones, and even medical equipment also made the list, but in much smaller volumes.
The figures reinforce how strategic sectors received differentiated treatment, while others had to absorb the burden of tariffs.
A Challenging Scenario
Brazilian exports continue to grow in volume, but the concentration in the American market and the additional tariffs imposed by Washington increase pressure on various sectors.
The Brazilian government is trying to ease the situation with internal measures, but the effect will not be immediate. Companies, especially smaller ones, face difficulties in adapting and seeking new markets.
Therefore, the high dependence on the United States remains a central risk for Brazilian foreign trade. The challenge now is to maintain the surplus and reduce vulnerabilities amid a scenario of uncertainties and increasing barriers.
With information from Istoe Dinheiro.
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