From Oil to Robotics: How 81 Innovations Reduced Solar Panel Costs by 99% Since the 1970s

Written by Fabio Lucas Carvalho

Published on 12/08/2025 at 11:02

Updated on 12/08/2025 at 11:03

Estudo do MIT revela rede global de inovações por trás da queda histórica no preço da energia solar

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MIT Study Reveals 81 Innovations, from Semiconductors to Software, That Reduced Solar Panel Costs by Over 99% Since 1970.

The cost of solar panels has plummeted by over 99% since the 1970s. This advancement has enabled the large-scale adoption of photovoltaic systems that convert sunlight into electricity.

A study from MIT detailed innovations that led to such dramatic reductions, showing that technical advancements from various fields were decisive.

The research, published in PLOS ONE, can guide renewable energy companies in their choices for research and development investments.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

Varied Origins of Innovations in Solar Panels

The most important thing is that many of the innovations did not arise directly from the SOLAR sector.

There were contributions from fields such as semiconductors, metallurgy, glass manufacturing, oil and gas drilling, construction, and even legal domains.

The senior author, Jessika Trancik, a professor at the MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, noted that the process of cost reduction is complex.

According to her, scientific and engineering advancements, often basic, are at the heart of these declines. Knowledge has been drawn from multiple sectors, forming a network that favored improvements.

Team and Methodology

The article was also authored by Goksin Kavlak, Magdalena Klemun, Ajinkya Kamat, Brittany Smith, and Robert Margolis.

The foundation of the work was a mathematical model previously developed by the group, which relates engineering technology to the costs of photovoltaic modules and systems.

In this study, the goal was to delve into the scientific advancements that contributed to price declines.

To achieve this, the researchers combined the quantitative model with a qualitative analysis of innovations, assessing everything from materials and manufacturing to installation processes.

Identified Factors and Patterns

The numerical model guided the qualitative analysis. This allowed for the examination of innovations in areas with limited available data.

Cost factors already known were considered, such as the number of cells per module, wiring efficiency, and silicon wafer size.

From there, the team grouped the innovations to identify patterns.

Many advancements came from improving materials or prefabricating components, optimizing manufacturing and assembly. Industry experts helped validate the relevance of each innovation.

81 Innovations Mapped

Since the 1970s, the study identified 81 innovations that impacted costs, ranging from anti-reflective glass to fully online licensing systems.

Trancik stated that the analysis required setting boundaries to avoid delving too deeply into stages such as raw material processing.

The researchers separated the costs of photovoltaic modules from balance of system (BOS) costs, which include mounting, inverters, and cables.

While modules are produced and exported in mass, many BOS items are manufactured and sold locally.

Differences Between Modules and BOS

By comparing the two parts of the technology, it was possible to see that BOS innovations tend to be more related to lightweight technologies, such as changes in licensing procedures.

These had less impact on historical cost declines compared to hardware.

Delays in construction and bureaucratic processes were pointed out as factors that raise costs. Therefore, automated licensing software is seen as promising, even though it has not yet been quantified in the study.

Role of Other Sectors

Fields such as semiconductors, electronics, metallurgy, and oil have greatly contributed to the reduction of costs for both modules and BOS.

In the case of BOS, software engineering and utility services also had an impact.

Additionally, factors such as economies of scale and cumulative experience in the solar sector helped reduce cost variables.

A large portion of module innovations came from research and industry, while many BOS innovations were developed by local governments, U.S. states, and professional associations.

Technological Synergy

According to Trancik, photovoltaic energy has managed to leverage external advancements because there was technical compatibility, favorable timing, and supportive policies.

Klemun, another co-author, emphasized the potential of increased computing power to reduce BOS costs, citing automatic engineering review systems and remote evaluation software.

The team believes that knowledge transfer between sectors is still in its early stages. Robotics and digital tools based on artificial intelligence are expected to drive new cost reductions and quality improvements.

Measuring the Impact of Each Innovation

The methodology also allows for estimating quantitative impacts when data is available. An example mentioned was wire cutting, a technique from the 1980s.

With it, silicon loss was reduced and productivity was increased.

This retrospective analysis shows what worked and can guide future strategies for solar panels. The model can also be used to predict the effects of new technologies, helping to identify external sectors capable of contributing to improvements.

Next Steps

The group intends to apply the methodology to other technologies, including different renewable energy sources.

There is also interest in studying lightweight technologies in more depth, seeking innovations that accelerate cost reductions.

For Trancik, the process of technological innovation is not a “black box” that is impossible to understand.

Like other phenomena, it can be studied, measured, and used to guide the development of more accessible solutions.

From Oil to Robotics: How 81 Innovations Reduced Solar Panel Costs by 99% Since the 1970s

MIT Study Reveals 81 Innovations, from Semiconductors to Software, That Reduced Solar Panel Costs by Over 99% Since 1970.

Varied Origins of Innovations in Solar Panels

Team and Methodology

Identified Factors and Patterns

81 Innovations Mapped

Differences Between Modules and BOS

Role of Other Sectors

Technological Synergy

Measuring the Impact of Each Innovation

Next Steps

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From Oil to Robotics: How 81 Innovations Reduced Solar Panel Costs by 99% Since the 1970s

MIT Study Reveals 81 Innovations, from Semiconductors to Software, That Reduced Solar Panel Costs by Over 99% Since 1970.

Varied Origins of Innovations in Solar Panels

Team and Methodology

Identified Factors and Patterns

81 Innovations Mapped

Differences Between Modules and BOS

Role of Other Sectors

Technological Synergy

Measuring the Impact of Each Innovation

Next Steps

A village with 115 inhabitants wants new residents: it offers a house, a job, up to 44 thousand euros in benefits, almost free rent, an annual grant of 8 thousand euros for 3 years, and a 20 thousand euro incentive for businesses in the mountains of Italy.

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With an 88-meter wingspan, a capacity of 250 tons, six engines, and 32 wheels, the Ukrainian giant became the greatest symbol of extreme air transport and one of the most impressive machines in aviation history.

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After 16 years and almost 600 prototypes, a Chinese inventor unveils the world’s smallest and cheapest manned jet, at just 3.80 meters long and costing US$7.2 thousand in materials.

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