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The financial market begins 2025 with surprises: the dollar is at an all-time high, followed by a decline, and the Ibovespa is fluctuating in a challenging scenario. Inflation and the fiscal deficit in Brazil bring uncertainty to the year, while investors closely monitor the Central Bank's policies and global impacts. Find out what to expect!
The Brazilian financial market began 2025 with surprising movements that defied the expectations of investors and analysts.
In the first trading session of the year, the dollar reached a historic peak of R$6,22, generating apprehension among economic agents.
However, throughout the day, the US currency reversed the trend and closed down 0,4%, quoted at R$6,1593.
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At the same time, the Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, showed significant fluctuations, ending the day with a slight decline of 0,06%, at 120.205 points.
These movements reflect the low liquidity typical of the holiday period and the uncertainties regarding the Brazilian fiscal scenario and the outlook for the global economy.
Brazilian economic scenario: challenges and projections for 2025
Brazil faces a complex economic scenario, marked by fiscal challenges, persistent inflation and moderate economic growth.
According to the Focus Bulletin, published by the Central Bank, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for 2025 was revised to 1,8%, indicating a slowdown in relation to previous years.
Furthermore, inflation measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) is estimated at 4,96% for next year, above the target established by the National Monetary Council.
Monetary and fiscal policy: measures to contain inflation and stabilize the economy
In response to inflationary pressures and the devaluation of the real, the Central Bank has adopted a more rigid stance in monetary policy.
The Selic rate, currently at 12,25% per year, should be raised to 14,75% in 2025, according to financial market projections.
This strategy aims to contain inflation and stabilize the national currency. However, higher interest rates can negatively impact economic growth by increasing the cost of credit and reducing investment.
In the fiscal sphere, the Brazilian government faces the challenge of balancing public accounts in a context of high fiscal deficit and growing public debt. In 2024, the fiscal deficit reached 9,42% of GDP, while gross debt reached 78,20%.
For 2025, the government projects GDP growth of 2,6% and inflation of 3,3%, according to the budget proposal sent to Congress.
However, financial market analysts estimate more modest growth, around 2,01%, below the global average.
External sector: impact of international policies on the Brazilian economy
On the international scene, the world economy is expected to grow by around 2,6% in 2025, according to World Bank projections.
The slowdown in the Chinese economy imposes competitive pressure on companies based in Brazil, due to the excess production capacity in the Asian country.
Furthermore, the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States adds an element of unpredictability, with expectations of protectionist policies and possible trade wars, especially with China.
Foreign exchange market: volatility and Central Bank interventions
Volatility in the foreign exchange market has been a constant in recent months. In 2024, the Brazilian real registered a devaluation of 21,82%, being the worst currency among emerging economies of the year.
To contain the devaluation of the real, the Central Bank of Brazil has been intervening in the foreign exchange market, including traditional foreign exchange swap auctions.
In early 2025, the monetary authority announced the offering of up to 15.000 foreign exchange swap contracts for rolling over maturities, aiming to provide liquidity to the market and contain exchange rate volatility.
Oil sector: positive performance and outlook for 2025
The oil has been standing out positively in the Brazilian financial market. The shares of companies linked to oil have recorded positive performance, driven by the rise in international prices of Brent crude.
The expectation of an increase in global demand for oil contributed to the appreciation of these stocks, reflecting optimism regarding the global economic recovery.
Outlook for the Brazilian financial market in 2025
The beginning of 2025 shows a Brazilian financial market marked by volatility and uncertainty. Investors should remain cautious and pay attention to fiscal and monetary policies, both domestically and internationally, which will directly influence the behavior of the dollar and the Ibovespa throughout the year.
A Brazilian economy faces significant challenges, including high inflation, moderate economic growth and a challenging fiscal environment.
However, sectors such as oil may present opportunities for investors, depending on global market conditions.
Do you believe that the Brazilian economy will be able to overcome global challenges and achieve sustainable growth in 2025?
