English 
Spanish 
6 min read 
0 comments 
Find out how Donald Trump's return to the presidency could affect the value of the dollar and the possible impacts on the Brazilian market.
The US dollar exchange rate has become increasingly volatile, with political and economic influences affecting global markets. In 2025, the dollar value remains one of the biggest concerns for economists and investors, especially in the context of Donald Trump's return to the presidency of the United States.
The dollar, being a currency with a global impact, undergoes great variations depending on economic and political decisions, not only in the United States, but also in other countries, including Brazil.
In this article, we will explore how Trump's economic policy could affect the value of the dollar, the impacts of this fluctuation in Brazil and expectations for the future of the US currency.
- Haddad says food prices will fall, but coffee and eggs are a concern
- Fire at electrical substation causes total outage, canceling more than 1.300 flights and causing chaos in global air transport
- BNDES approves historic investment that promises to transform the renewable energy scenario in Brazil, boosting sustainable projects and creating new opportunities
- Salary bonus payment could reach R$1.518 — Find out who is entitled
The value of the dollar and its global influences
The value of the dollar is determined by a series of interconnected factors, with political and economic decisions, both in the United States and in other countries, having a strong influence on the foreign exchange market.
The American currency has a significant weight in global economies, serving as a reference of stability or instability for many countries, including Brazil.
In 2024, the dollar surpassed the R$6,00 mark in Brazil, a value that was maintained throughout the year and that many analysts believe could continue in 2025.
This rise in the dollar on the Brazilian market is not a simple consequence of internal factors, but rather a reflection of economic tensions in the United States, especially related to the policies implemented by Donald Trump.
Trump's return and his economic promises
The great expectation for 2025 is related to Donald Trump's second term, which promises to bring a series of significant economic changes.
After his election in 2024, many promises made by Trump during the campaign are still on investors' radar, especially regarding trade tariffs and monetary policy.
One of the most discussed points is the possibility of Trump imposing new import tariffs on a wide range of products, especially those coming from China.
While such tariffs have not yet been implemented on a large scale, there is a growing movement towards protectionism, which has the potential to directly affect the value of the dollar.
How can protectionism affect the value of the dollar?
Tariff protectionism is one of the most discussed strategies of the Trump administration. The impact of this type of measure occurs gradually, but with knock-on effects that can have major repercussions both in the United States and the rest of the world.
Initially, the increase in tariffs is generally passed on by companies to consumers, generating internal inflation.
With inflation on the rise, the Federal Reserve (FED), the central bank of the United States, tends to increase interest rates to contain the effects of inflation.
This increase in interest rates makes US bonds more attractive to investors, which leads to a strengthening of the dollar as investors shift their funds to safer assets.
The ripple effect of this movement can be seen in Brazil and other emerging markets.
With the increase in interest rates in the United States, investors tend to withdraw their capital from riskier markets, such as Brazil, and direct it to the United States.
This could cause the real to depreciate against the dollar, making the US currency more expensive.
Trump's policy and its consequences for Brazil
Regarding Brazil, the impact of Trump's tariff policies could be more complex. The country, although not the main target of the tariffs, could be indirectly affected by measures that affect other emerging markets or by the impact of inflation in the United States.
During Trump's first term, Brazil already felt the effects of tariffs imposed on products such as steel and aluminum, two important sectors for the Brazilian economy.
If Trump goes ahead with his proposals for higher tariffs, Brazil could face difficulties in some export sectors, such as commodities and manufactured goods.
Furthermore, Brazil is part of the BRICS, an economic bloc that has been the target of Trump's statements, especially when it comes to the use of alternative currencies to the dollar.
In one of his speeches, Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on products from BRICS countries if they choose to trade outside the dollar. This could directly impact Brazil, given its important role in the bloc.
The Role of the Central Bank and the Exchange Rate Regime in Brazil
The value of the dollar is also influenced by the actions of the Central Bank of Brazil. Since 1999, Brazil has adopted a floating exchange rate regime, which means that the price of the dollar is largely determined by market supply and demand.
However, the Central Bank can intervene in the market to soften the effects of extreme currency fluctuations by buying or selling dollars.
When there is a high demand for dollars, the Central Bank can sell the US currency to increase its supply in the market and reduce the price of the dollar.
The reverse is also true: when there is a drop in demand for dollars, the Central Bank can buy dollars, causing the price of the currency to remain higher.
However, the Central Bank's actions are not enough to fully control currency fluctuations, especially when external factors, such as Trump's policies, are at play.
Expectations for the value of the dollar in 2025
Economists expect the dollar to remain strong through 2025, especially due to US economic policies.
The Central Bank's Focus bulletin points to a dollar exchange rate of around R$6,00 by the end of the year, with possible variations depending on political decisions in both the United States and Brazil.
If the tariffs proposed by Trump are implemented, the dollar could continue its appreciation trajectory, directly affecting international trade and the economies of emerging countries, such as Brazil.
On the other hand, Brazil will also have to deal with internal challenges, such as fiscal policy and inflation, which may impact the country's attractiveness to investors.
Conclusion
The value of the dollar is the result of a complex combination of political and economic factors, ranging from the monetary policies of the United States to the internal economic conditions of Brazil.
Trump's return to the presidency promises to bring new challenges and opportunities to the foreign exchange market, and the dollar's exchange rate will continue to reflect global political tensions and decisions.
Meanwhile, Brazil needs to prepare for the possible impacts of these changes, seeking strategies to minimize the effects of the rise in the dollar on its economy.
The future of the US currency and its implications for the global market remain crucial issues for the coming years.
With information from: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/cvg8n7j4xq3o
