Global Oil Industry More Optimistic, According to DNV GL

Oil Executives Are More Optimistic Than Ever, Despite Concerns Over Volatility and Cost Pressures, According to DNV GL Research

Global oil and gas sector participants are more optimistic about industry prospects now than a year ago, with the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions showing long-term thinking, according to new research. Confidence is rising across all regions, supported by “relatively solid supply and demand fundamentals” and the belief that cost-efficiency measures will help boost profits in the coming years, concluded the industry technical consultant DNV GL in an annual survey of oil and gas executives worldwide.

Overall, 76% of surveyed executives are optimistic about industry growth prospects next year, up from 63% a year ago, while confidence for the next decade surged from 45% to 57% on a global basis.

“These high levels of confidence for both 2019 and the next decade suggest that the industry believes in its ability to adapt – both to higher short-term volatility and to changes in supply and demand patterns in the long term,” said DNV GL.

For next year, Brazil, China, and the U.S. have the brightest prospects, with 95%, 89%, and 85% of respondents reporting a positive growth outlook, respectively.

Optimism for growth in the next decade now ranges between 53% and 56% in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East and North Africa regions, with the former showing the most significant increase, from 34% in 2018.

“The increase in confidence, particularly in light of recent market volatility, also signals a new resilience and indicates that the industry has adapted to better handle price swings and prolonged periods of lower prices,” noted DNV GL.

Companies generally expect to increase spending next year, particularly on natural gas projects aimed at boosting long-term investment budgets.

At the same time, executives are cautious about signs of cost inflation as investment resumes, said DNV GL. Additionally, global regions report varying degrees of concern over issues such as trade disputes, oil prices, local economies, competitive pressure, and skills shortages.

Companies are increasingly adapting to a low-carbon energy mix, led by players in the Asia-Pacific at 60% and the Middle East at 57%, with North America reaching 30%, the survey showed.

“Not long ago, the industry viewed the energy transition as a transformation on the horizon. This perspective has now changed,” as “this significant change has already arrived,” said Liv Hovem, CEO of DNV GL Oil & Gas.

Digitalization is by far the largest area of investment for research and development, with 45% of respondents citing it as a priority, ahead of subsea technology at 21% and cybersecurity at 19%, said DNV GL.