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Brazil is on the brink of an unprecedented economic crisis, and the alert comes from economist Fernando Ulrich. According to Ulrich, current fiscal policies could generate a perfect storm where excessive government spending compromises the national economy and could lead to a catastrophic scenario.
In a incisive analysis, Ulrich highlights that the government, in trying to solve its fiscal problems, may end up worsening the economic situation of the country.
Ulrich, during his participation in the podcast The Billionaire Brazil, stated that the government is primarily responsible for the increase in public debt and the high interest rates. “The government is the big spender that needs to finance this fiscal hole,” he says.
With revenue lower than expenditure, the government is “sucking away national savings.” This leads to a vicious cycle: the more the government spends, the greater the need to go into debt, which increases interest rates. This phenomenon is known to create a debt spiral that can seriously harm the economy.
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The R$ 61.7 billion deficit in government accounts in 2025 will trigger the fiscal framework’s mechanisms for the first time, and starting in 2027, personnel spending will only be able to grow 0.6% above inflation, which could freeze salary adjustments and public service entrance exams.
Interest Rates and the Inflation Problem
Ulrich criticizes the simplistic approach of trying to control inflation through price controls and subsidies. He emphasizes that these measures are merely band-aids that do not address the root of the problem. “Breaking the thermometer doesn’t solve the fever; it is necessary to treat the cause,” Ulrich explains.
The attempt to control fuel prices and energy tariffs without addressing the issue of public spending can lead to a situation where the economy is distorted, and the problem worsens over time.
Ulrich mentions that the experience of the previous government showed that price controls and direct intervention in economic sectors can have adverse effects.
“The rise of the SELIC rate was ignored, and credit became subsidized, harming the productive sector,” he states. This scenario, according to Ulrich, can create an environment where credit is directed inefficiently, favoring large companies at the expense of smaller ones and harming the real economy.
Interventions and the Risk of an Impending Crisis
The economist also discusses how the government may try to contain inflation inadequately, as observed in Argentina and other countries. Ulrich criticizes the practice of keeping prices artificially low to avoid adjustments, which can create a “nest of rats” in the economy. “The government holds the price of gasoline or energy, but the reality is that these measures end up harming the economy in the long run,” he explains.
He emphasizes that the government may try to prevent price increases as a way to control inflation. However, these actions often result in an even bigger problem when prices need to be adjusted, leading to a sudden and harmful increase. Ulrich exemplifies with Venezuela, where government intervention led to the collapse of PDVSA and the devastation of the national economy.
The Importance of Transparency and Efficiency
Ulrich also criticizes the lack of transparency and inadequate intervention in the economy, mentioning the situation in Cuba. He notes that despite the American embargo, the Cuban economy suffered mainly due to internal problems and lack of efficient management.
“The embargo is not the main problem; the real issue is internal economic management,” he states. Similarly, he argues that Brazil should not follow the example of other countries and should seek a more rational and efficient approach to managing its public finances.
The Need for Structural Changes
For Ulrich, the solution to Brazil’s fiscal crisis lies in deep structural reforms rather than temporary measures.
“The government needs to understand that simply trying to manipulate prices and interest rates is not enough. It is necessary to address the root of fiscal problems,” he emphasizes. He argues that the country should seek solutions that involve more efficient management of public spending and a more balanced approach to monetary policy.
Preparing for the Future in the Brazilian Economy
Ulrich recommends that citizens and investors stay alert to economic changes and prepare for potential impacts. “Understanding the cause-and-effect relationship and anticipating changes can help make safer financial decisions,” he suggests.
He believes that transparency and proper management are crucial to avoid a severe economic crisis and that the population must be well-informed to make strategic decisions.
Thus, Fernando Ulrich’s analysis reveals a concerning scenario for Brazil’s economy, where a lack of fiscal control and inadequate interventions could lead the country into a deep economic crisis.
In this sense, Ulrich warns of the need for structural reforms and more efficient management of public finances to prevent an economic catastrophe. The main message is clear: transparency, spending control, and a rational approach are essential to ensure economic stability and avoid an impending crisis.
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