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In 18 years of construction, the California High-Speed Rail Authority inaugurated on May 22 the 60th concrete structure of its billion-dollar bullet train, the Road 26 viaduct in Madera County, but the project still lacks a single kilometer of track laid, and the budget has already exploded from $33 billion approved in 2008 to $126 billion.
The inaugurated viaduct is 194 meters long and 21 meters wide.
It consists of three lanes that pass over the BNSF railway and the future bullet train line.
It is located in Madera County, north of the city of Madera, and completes the planned package for the county within the current scope of the project.
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The estimated public benefit for the structure over three decades comes from the reduction of accidents and deaths at the region’s railway crossings.
Those who have seen the construction site in aerial photos understand the scale. Bridges, viaducts, and galleries spread across Madera, Fresno, Kings, and Tulare County.
Along with Road 26, there are already 60 civil structures completed in the Central Valley section under construction since 2015.
The Authority reported in the May bulletin that two-thirds of the guideway planned for this first stage are already ready.
Dozens of other structures are ongoing along the four central counties of the state.
Zero meter of track in 18 years
The detail that turns the announcement into an embarrassing headline is what’s missing.
In almost two decades of open construction site, the California High-Speed Rail Authority has not laid a single kilometer of track.
The bullet trains that will run at 350 km/h exist only in marketing renderings.
The construction is in the phase of structures and guideways, building the civil structures that will support the tracks.
The tracks themselves are only expected to begin installation in 2026, after the Authority confirms the supplier.
The Southern Railhead Facility, in Kern County, was inaugurated at the beginning of the year to serve as a storage warehouse before installation.
It was announced by Governor Gavin Newsom in February as a “milestone” of the project, a word that says more about the current standard than about the construction itself.
Budget that exploded almost four times
The budget approved in the state referendum in 2008 was $33 billion.
The business plan published by the Authority this year already works with $126 billion for Phase 1, between San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Other surveys, such as that of the state auditor’s office, project a total cost above $230 billion. More than seven times the original amount.
Donald Trump did not help. In July last year, the Federal Railroad Administration cut $4 billion in federal funding to the project, citing non-compliance with agreed deadlines.
The Authority appealed the decision. The federal money disappeared from the equation.
The schedule became fiction
The 2008 plan foresaw the first commercial trip in 2020.
The 2026 plan admits that the Merced-Bakersfield section should only operate at the beginning of the next decade.
The complete set between San Francisco and Los Angeles was pushed to the mid-2040s.
More than three decades between the referendum that authorized the project and the first trip of the complete section.
For comparison, Japan built the first Shinkansen in five years at the height of the post-war economic miracle.
China delivers a 350 km/h bullet train section in three years on average.
Spain, South Korea, and Morocco developed their high-speed networks in similar timeframes.
Looking at it this way, California seems to have taken the wrong formula from start to finish.
The parallel with Brazil
Brazil has been dragging its feet on the Rio-São Paulo bullet train since the 90s.
There were two failed auctions in the past decade and more than R$ 30 billion already studied in the project without a single shovel touching the ground.
As we have shown in the coverage of the Zojila road tunnel in India, much less wealthy countries are moving forward while Brazil continues to discuss feasibility.
The difference is that, in the Brazilian case, at least the expense remains frozen on the BNDES shelf.
In California, the construction site consumes billions while the commercial operation becomes a mirage.
It’s the worst of both worlds: the expensive and symbolic bullet train that doesn’t move.
I confess that this part is the most bothersome because it shows that institutional paralysis is not exclusive to developing countries.
And you, which Brazilian project that never gets off the ground most resembles this Californian bullet train? Share your thoughts.
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