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Half of Cattle Farms May Close in the Next Two Decades if the Sector Does Not Quickly Adopt Technology, Efficient Management, and New Production Practices to Keep Up with Global Market Demands.
The Brazilian livestock sector faces one of the biggest challenges in its recent history.
A study cited by experts indicates that up to 50% of cattle farms may close in 20 years if the sector does not accelerate modernization and productive efficiency.
The warning reflects profound changes in the agricultural economy and in the way to manage rural business.
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The Transition from Traditional Producer to Rural Manager
For decades, the profile of the Brazilian cattle rancher was that of a breeder who kept cattle in the pasture, provided mineral salt, and waited for time to take care of the rest.
This model, however, no longer keeps up with the speed of the market.
Today, the producer needs to act as an agribusiness entrepreneur, attentive to costs, indicators, technology, and consumer behavior.
According to experts, the profitability of cattle has begun to behave similarly to stocks on the stock exchange.
“I buy low and sell high,” commented one of the interviewees in the debate, comparing the logic of investment in livestock with the financial market.
This business-oriented perspective is gaining ground, but it is still far from being the reality for most farms.
Lack of Management Threatens the Survival of Properties
The numbers reveal a structural problem: only about 16% of farms use scales and handling facilities, basic equipment to measure productivity and weight gain of animals.
The absence of concrete data compromises financial control and makes it difficult to increase efficiency.
Experts remind us that a process that is not measured multiple times loses consistency.
In practice, without metrics, the producer cannot identify bottlenecks, reduce costs, or improve herd performance.
This gap in management explains why so many enterprises are at risk of disappearing in the coming decades.
Nutrition and Technology: The Engine of Future Profit
A frequently neglected point is strategic nutritional supplementation.
Many ranchers still avoid investing in nutrition during the dry period, believing it is enough to maintain the herd until the next rainy season.
However, as one of the discussion participants pointed out, “it is on the decline that the car gains speed”.
In other words, the moment to accelerate weight gain is when the cattle have better nutritional conditions — not just to maintain the minimum for survival.
This type of management, combined with precision technologies, tends to increase cash flow, raise the number of arrobas per hectare, and improve returns per animal.
The modernization of livestock, according to consultants, involves integrating nutrition, genetics, traceability, and digital data management.
Difference in Mindset Between Farmers and Cattle Ranchers
Another highlighted contrast is the difference in mindset between farmers and cattle breeders.
While farmers usually know exactly how much they produced per hectare, how much they spent on inputs, and the returns obtained, many cattle ranchers still operate “on instinct,” without spreadsheets, records, or detailed analyses.
“A farmer keeps track of even the liter of diesel spent. The cattle rancher often does not know the exact cost of the arroba produced,” commented one of the experts.
This disparity explains why farmers have greater financial predictability and investment capacity.
In the livestock sector, the lack of control turns market fluctuations into concrete threats to the sustainability of the business.
The New Meat Cycle and Its Impact on the Global Market
Besides internal management, the sector faces significant external transformations.
The demand for quality meat is growing, driven by more demanding consumers and international standards of sustainability and traceability.
At the same time, alternatives for cultivated protein and plant-based substitutes are emerging, putting pressure on the traditional market.
To keep pace with this change, it will be necessary to invest in genetics, animal welfare, and reducing the carbon footprint.
Meat processing industries are also likely to prioritize more efficient suppliers with certifications and complete traceability.
Those who do not keep up with this movement run the risk of being excluded from the production chain.
The Role of Technology and Continuous Measurement
Technological modernization is emerging as the main survival tool.
Monitoring through sensors, management software, real-time data analysis, and artificial intelligence are already part of the daily routine of the most advanced farms.
These practices allow for adjustments in feeding, predicting weight gains, and planning sales based on precise data.
As one of the interviewees highlighted, “measuring, measuring, and measuring” is the only way to ensure consistency.
Without measurement, any process becomes uncertain and inefficient.
In the industry, a cut of meat is only considered perfect when the process is repeated and evaluated multiple times — the same principle should be applied to rural management.
The Challenge of Productive Consciousness
Despite the advancement of a minority of modern producers, productive consciousness is still limited.
It is estimated that only 15% of cattle ranchers are fully aligned with practices of efficiency and sustainability.
The rest, according to experts, still relies on old methods and a less business-oriented vision of the activity.
This difference creates a clear division: those who innovate tend to grow, while those who resist change may disappear.
The study predicting the closure of half of farms in the next 20 years does not indicate an inevitable fate but serves as a warning about the pace of the sector’s adaptation.
Está cada dia mais complicado,produzir bezerro e bezerras,um dos entrave é o clima,5 meses de chuva e muita seca,sobrelotar a pastagem não dá,sublotar ,engorda matrizes,conseguencia dificulta prenhes,e matrizes enjoadas por pastagem quando perdem qualidade ,outro é sobe e desce do preço, insumos corrigidos e o do **** é questão de mercado,outro é tributação da ****….isso em pequena área…muito trabalho ,pouco retorno ,mesmo com bom manejo,e raça…..