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Meteorologists warn of increasingly intense changes in the Brazilian climate pattern throughout 2026, as rural producers face a growing risk of crop losses, management difficulties, and increased pressure on reservoirs, pastures, and production costs
The advance of the El Niño phenomenon is already beginning to change the climate behavior in Brazil and raises a warning signal among rural producers in different regions of the country. With forecasts of higher temperatures, prolonged drought periods, and increased irregularity of rainfall, the second half of 2026 is expected to be marked by climate extremes capable of directly affecting crops, livestock, and water reservoirs.
According to information released by the Notícias Agrícolas portal at the beginning of June 2026, meteorologist Estael Sias stated that the effects of the phenomenon have already started to appear in May and tend to intensify during the winter and spring. The concern grows mainly in agricultural areas more dependent on the regularity of rainfall.
According to the specialist, the ocean already shows consistent warming, while the atmosphere is gradually beginning to respond to the climate phenomenon. This behavior reinforces the expectation of the official confirmation of El Niño in the coming weeks by international meteorology agencies.
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“The scenario requires constant monitoring because we will have regions with below-average rainfall, increased evapotranspiration, and longer periods of heat,” explained Estael Sias during an interview with the portal.
Furthermore, the impacts are not expected to occur uniformly across Brazilian territory. While some areas may face excessive rain and severe storms, others are likely to experience persistent drought and strong water stress.
Southern Brazil is expected to face more rain, storms, and reduced frosts
After a May marked by intense frosts and negative temperatures in areas of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná, June began with a significant change in the climate pattern of the Southern Region.
According to the meteorologist, the first half of the month presents a reduced risk of frost and a greater presence of humidity, cloudiness, and fog. This scenario can mainly impact agricultural logistics and cargo transportation on the region’s roads.
Still according to the specialist, the first days of June should record many clouds and frequent periods of fog, hindering visibility in producing areas.
Despite this, rainfall volumes are not expected to be very high at the beginning of the month. The more concerning trend appears from the second half of June, when precipitation begins to gain strength more consistently.
The situation tends to worsen between July and August, a period when the effects of El Niño are expected to become even more evident in Southern Brazil.
According to Estael Sias, the phenomenon usually favors episodes of intense rainfall in a short period of time, increasing the risk of storms accompanied by wind gusts, lightning, and hail.
This behavior worries rural producers due to the potential for damage to winter crops, agricultural structures, and storage areas.
Moreover, increased humidity can hinder harvesting and field management operations, especially during prolonged instability periods.
Southeast and Center of the country should register above-average heat and soil moisture loss
In the Southeast Region, the beginning of June still presents isolated episodes of rain, mainly in areas of the interior of São Paulo, south of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo.
However, the climatic trend is expected to change rapidly throughout the month.
According to the meteorologist, the second half of June will be marked by the advance of heat over a large part of the region, significantly raising average temperatures.
This thermal increase worries agricultural producers mainly due to the growth of evapotranspiration, a phenomenon responsible for the faster loss of water from the soil and plants.
In practice, this means greater difficulty in maintaining the moisture necessary for crop development.
Meanwhile, regions in the north of Minas Gerais are already beginning to show a typical dry winter pattern, with low rainfall incidence and a gradual increase in warm air.
Experts warn that the scenario could increase irrigation costs and put further pressure on reservoirs used in agricultural production.
Furthermore, crops more sensitive to extreme heat may suffer significant impacts if temperatures remain high for long periods.
Northeast and North should face drought, intense heat, and high risk of wildfires
In the Northeast, climate forecasts for the second half of the year mainly concern producers in Matopiba, a region that includes areas of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia.
According to Estael Sias, El Niño has a strong historical relationship with reduced rainfall in the northeastern interior, especially in the Agreste and Sertão areas.
As a result, the risk of water scarcity tends to increase significantly in the coming months.
While the rainfall is expected to remain more concentrated along the coast and the far north of the region, agricultural areas in the south of Piauí, west of Bahia, and part of Maranhão may face extremely high temperatures and low relative humidity.
Besides the difficulty for planting, the scenario also increases the risk of wildfires in rural areas.
In the Northern Region, the climate behavior is expected to remain divided between excess and lack of rain.
States like Amazonas, Amapá, Roraima, and the north of Pará are still expected to record high volumes of precipitation. On the other hand, Tocantins, Acre, Rondônia, and the south of Pará may face a significant reduction in rainfall throughout the winter.
According to the meteorologist, the advance of dry air coming from the Center of Brazil should inhibit the formation of rain in these areas.
The temperatures also draw attention. In some regions of Tocantins and the south of the Amazon, thermometers may reach between 34°C and 38°C during the hottest periods.
This scenario increases the risk of rivers with low levels, an increase in wildfires, and difficulties in water supply in various locations.
Livestock farming is also expected to feel the impacts directly.
According to Estael Sias, animals suffer from increased thermal stress, while pastures tend to lose quality due to reduced rainfall and persistent heat.
Given this increasingly challenging climate scenario, specialists recommend that producers constantly monitor weather updates and adjust management strategies throughout the second half of the year.
As published by the portal Notícias Agrícolas in June 2026, the gradual advance of El Niño may turn the coming months into one of the most challenging periods for Brazilian agribusiness in recent years.
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