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Seven OPEC+ allied countries announce 188,000 barrels per day increase, but Strait of Hormuz blockade may limit the measure’s effects
OPEC+ announced a new increase in oil production starting in June 2026, at a time marked by strong pressure in the global market.
According to a statement released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, on Sunday, May 3, 2026, seven allied countries approved an increase of 188,000 barrels per day.
Furthermore, the decision involves Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, who participated in the virtual meeting on market conditions.
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Thus, if the plan is maintained, this will be the third consecutive monthly increase in oil production within the group.
Despite this, OPEC+ itself informed that the adjustment may be reviewed according to the evolution of prices, supply, and international demand.
Increase occurs amid strong market pressure
Currently, the announcement occurs in a scenario of great geopolitical and commercial instability.
This is because the Strait of Hormuz, located in the Persian Gulf, remains blocked due to the war in Iran.
Thus, even with the foreseen increase in production, the outflow of oil remains compromised in the region.
Therefore, the increase of 188,000 barrels per day may have a more symbolic than immediate effect for some producers.
Still, the decision tries to convey a message of coordination among exporting countries to the market.
According to OPEC, the seven countries intend to continue evaluating global sector conditions monthly.
Seven countries support new OPEC+ adjustment
The agreement was reached between Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman.
Furthermore, the countries reinforced that the measure is part of the voluntary adjustments previously announced by the group.
Thus, the additional production is expected to begin in June, but may be altered according to market behavior.
However, the decision does not eliminate uncertainties about supply, transport, and international prices.
After all, the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz hinders the flow of oil in one of the world’s most strategic regions.
Therefore, analysts are monitoring whether the announced increase will be able to compensate for the logistical bottlenecks caused by the crisis.
Hormuz blockade reduces practical impact of decision
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz gained central importance in market interpretation.
This happens because the maritime passage is an essential route for the transport of oil produced in the Persian Gulf.
Thus, even with new barrels authorized, part of the supply may face restrictions in reaching international buyers.
Consequently, the OPEC+ increase is now seen as a strategic response to price pressure.
However, the real effect of the measure will depend on the release of transport and regional stability.
By the end of April, according to the base text, Brent crude oil was priced at around US$ 108 per barrel.
Before the outbreak of the war, on February 28, the price was around US$ 70 per barrel.
Emirates’ departure changes group composition
Meanwhile, the move comes after the departure of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC.
According to Reuters, the Emirates announced the decision on April 28, 2026.
Subsequently, the country officially left the organization on May 1, 2026.
With this change, OPEC and its allies now total 21 members, according to the base text information.
Furthermore, the departure of the Emirates adds more uncertainty to the group’s internal balance.
This is because the country was a significant member within the oil producers’ articulation.
Therefore, the new production increase occurs amidst two simultaneous pressures: political change in the cartel and logistical blockade in Hormuz.
Key points of the announcement
Among the central elements of the decision, some data stand out:
Expected increase: 188 thousand barrels per day starting June 2026.
Countries involved: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.
Announcement date: May 3, 2026.
Pressure factor: blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent change: official departure of the United Arab Emirates on May 1, 2026.
Furthermore, OPEC+ informed that it may revise the plan according to market behavior.
In this way, the group tries to expand supply without ignoring the risks of price instability.
What should the market observe now?
Starting in June, the market will monitor whether the production increase will be able to alleviate some of the pressure on oil.
However, the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains the main obstacle for regional outflow.
Furthermore, the departure of the United Arab Emirates alters OPEC’s composition and reduces the number of members in the expanded group.
As a result, the OPEC+ decision now combines technical calculation, geopolitical response, and an attempt at stabilization.
Meanwhile, Brent prices continue to reflect fears of global supply restrictions.
Given this scenario, will the increase of 188 thousand barrels per day be enough to reduce pressure on oil, or will the Hormuz blockade continue to dictate the market’s pace?
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