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Conflict Between Israel and Iran Raises High Alert in International Markets, Pressures Oil Prices and Threatens Stability of the Strategic Route of the Strait of Hormuz, Increasing Fear of Global Inflationary Spiral
Oil prices surged sharply on Friday (13) after Israel launched an airstrike against nuclear facilities in Iran, heightening fears of energy supply disruptions from the Middle East, a critical region for oil production and export.
Futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, a reference in the United States, spiked as much as 14% overnight before retreating to a rise of about 8%, trading at US$ 73 per barrel by 8:30 a.m. (New York time). Meanwhile, Brent, used as an international benchmark, rose up to 13% and was quoted with a gain of 7%, surpassing US$ 74.
The price escalation reflects concerns that the conflict between Israel and Iran may lead to the disruption of strategic oil and gas transport routes. Analysts at JPMorgan warned that further attacks or retaliation by Iran could cause severe disruptions in the global energy market.
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According to Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, the market is incorporating a high-risk premium due to geopolitical instability and the potential for supply shortages.
Economic Impacts and Inflation Risks
Experts warn that the surge in oil prices could hinder inflation control in various economies. Mohamed El-Erian, economic advisor at Allianz, stated that rising energy prices diminish the chances of interest rate cuts in the United States.
He noted that the new shock represents a direct threat to the U.S.-led global economic order, with negative effects in both the short and long term. The escalation also increases pressure on fuel prices and raises logistical and industrial costs.
Iran is the fourth largest producer in OPEC and has previously threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which about one-third of the world’s seaborne oil transit. The country is also neighboring Qatar, which accounts for 20% of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, which also depends on this passage.
Financial Markets on Alert
In light of the military escalation and increased uncertainties, global investors have reduced their exposure to risky assets. European markets opened lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index down nearly 1% and the German DAX losing 1.5%. In London, the FTSE 100 fell 0.4%, despite gains in BP (2.8%) and Shell (1.6%) stocks.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed the day down 0.9%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 indices recorded declines of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Gold rose above US$ 3,400 per ounce, and U.S. Treasury bonds appreciated, with 10-year yields retreating to 4.35%.
Summary of U.S. Markets at 8:30 (ET):
- S&P 500 Futures: down 0.8%, at 5,998 points
- Dow Jones Futures: down 0.9%, at 42,600 points
- Nasdaq Futures: down 1.1%, at 21,689 points
Military Escalation and Official Statements
The Israeli attack occurred on Friday morning (local time), with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that the operation aims to prevent the advancement of Iran’s nuclear program. He claimed that Iran already has enough enriched uranium to produce up to nine atomic bombs—a allegation not supported by evidence.
In the United States, former President Donald Trump used Truth Social to pressure Iran to close a deal, warning that further attacks from Israel would be even “more brutal” if there is no de-escalation. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the U.S. did not participate in the action and emphasized that America’s priority is to protect its troops in the region.
The offensive comes at a time when diplomats were trying to resume talks with Tehran, increasing the risk of a collapse in negotiations and the onset of a broader war.
Risk Scenario and Expectations
With escalating tensions, markets have entered a risk-averse mode. According to Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, this movement may lead to liquidations before the weekend, especially after systematic funds returned to buying risk assets in recent weeks.
Vishnu Varathan, head of macroeconomics at Mizuho for Asia (excluding Japan), highlighted that the escalation could quickly spiral out of control and evolve into an open conflict if there is no swift diplomatic intervention. The risk of oil and gas export stoppages in the Persian Gulf has become central on the market’s radar.
As reported by Business Insider, the current scenario represents one of the most delicate moments of the year for the markets, which had been seeking to recover from recent periods of volatility and global uncertainty.
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