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“Fuel prices in 2024 should be more consistent due to the exchange rate and oil, but with pressure from demand. Average price fluctuating at R$4,85.”
Os fuels have been a topic of great concern, mainly related to the prices of fuels. The expectation is that this year the scenario will be much better behaved, according to an analysis by Bruno Pascon, executive director of the Brazilian Infrastructure Center (CBIE). The assessment is that the market expects a much smaller economic growth cycle, which is 'basically the Western economies due to the monetary tightening, which increased interest rates from 0% to 5%', he states. According to Pascon, without pressure from demand, the market will look at the supply side. Furthermore, he highlights that, contrary to what was expected, China did not put pressure on oil prices, just as the winter in the northern hemisphere has not brought any seasonal sign of higher prices, either for the gas or oil.
In general, according to the analyst, the mixture of higher biodiesel, which tends to have a greater pressure effect on price at the pump (between R$ 0,9 and R$ 0,18), and also the effect of resuming PIS/Cofins collections from January onwards, is more than offset by the commodities scenario, with oil prices below and exchange rate under control. The weight of the exchange rate and oil is essential in this scenario, with the expectation of oil price this year to be between US$75 and US$80 per barrel, compared to US$82 in 2023. 'Obviously the price of oil can suffer volatility from geopolitical events, but at least on the basis, the expectation is for an average price to fall' , comments.
Fuels: Rising prices and impacts on the economy
A scenario The current situation has been marked by strong pressure on fuel prices, which has significantly impacted consumers' pockets. The price of fuel, which already fluctuated around R$4,85, came under greater pressure recently, resulting in a significant increase. That pressure from demand, combined with the seasonal signaling of higher prices, has driven the average price upwards, causing impacts on the economic growth cycle.
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Furthermore, the approval of the tax reform has contributed to a monetary tightening, which in turn has led to a interest increase. As a result, pressure from demand has put pressure on oil prices. The mixture of larger biodiesel has also had an impact, due to the effect of returning PIS/Cofins charges.
Given this scenario, the weakest performance of the economy has been observed, as consumers are facing difficulties with the increase in fuel prices. Dependence on exchange rates and oil has also had an influence, resulting in an environment of uncertainty and increased prices.
Therefore, it is crucial that governments and economic authorities adopt measures to deal with this price pressure, in order to avoid negative impacts on the economic growth cycle. The search for solutions that can alleviate the pressure on fuel prices is essential to guarantee economic stability and the well-being of citizens.
Source: moneytimes
