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Study published in Geophysical Research Letters shows that gravity, rotation, and crust deformation can change projections about ocean elevation.
The rise of the sea level may be greater than indicated by the calculations currently used in climate models.
According to a study published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, physical processes related to the Earth’s gravity, the planet’s rotation, and crust deformation can amplify the effects of water redistribution in the oceans.
The research indicates that these forces can increase the variability of sea level associated with oceanic mass displacement by about 15%.
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In some coastal regions, the difference could reach approximately five centimeters by 2100.
Technical study reveals a piece little considered in climate calculations
Projections about ocean advancement mainly consider two factors.
The first involves the melting of glaciers and polar ice caps.
The second corresponds to the thermal expansion of water, caused by ocean warming.
However, researchers highlight a third important element.
The way water redistributes across the planet also affects sea level.
According to the authors, large volumes of water accumulated in certain oceanic areas slightly increase local gravity.
This region then starts to attract even more water.
At the same time, the additional weight causes the Earth’s crust to gradually give way.
Gravity, rotation, and deformed crust change the behavior of the sea
This movement can also alter the ocean floor and influence small changes in the Earth’s rotation axis.
For this reason, water does not spread uniformly across the oceans.
According to the study’s summary, this mass redistribution causes additional changes in sea level.
These changes occur through local gravitational variations and deformations in the ocean floor.
To measure this impact, scientists used global climate models from the CMIP6 generation.
Then, they simulated the displacement of the water mass until 2100.
Subsequently, researchers included the so-called GRD effects in the calculations.
The acronym stands for gravity, rotation, and deformation.
Coastal regions may feel a greater impact by the end of the century
The results indicate that these processes further raise sea levels in areas where water tends to accumulate.
The authors also observed additional increases along the coasts and reductions in deep ocean regions.
Although five centimeters may seem small, this difference can have a significant impact on vulnerable areas.
In practice, a slightly higher sea increases the frequency of flooding caused by extreme tides, swells, and storms.
The most sensitive areas appear on wide continental shelves and high latitude regions.
Among the mentioned locations are parts of the Arctic and coastal zones of Southeast Asia.
Current models may be underestimating coastal risks
According to researchers, leaving these processes out of projections may underestimate sea level variations by about 15%.
Thus, current calculations may not show the full complexity involved in ocean advancement.
The authors emphasize that the phenomenon does not represent a new cause of climate change.
In fact, it is a physical component that can improve the accuracy of projections.
With this update, governments and coastal managers can better plan measures against flooding and sea advancement.
The discovery shows that oceans respond not only to global warming.
They also react to fundamental mechanisms of Earth’s own physics.
In some regions, therefore, the threat of rising sea levels may be greater than previously thought.
In this scenario, are coastal cities already prepared for a higher and more unpredictable sea?
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