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With Brazilian oil on the rise, a strong real, and high interest rates, Brazil also attracts foreign capital, gains prominence among emerging markets, and sees global banks point to positive effects of the energy crisis on the national economy in 2026
Brazilian oil, the appreciation of the real, and high interest rates have put the country back at the center of external bets and foreign investors, while global banks and the IMF see gains linked to the commodity’s rise in 2026.
Brazilian oil shifts the focus of foreign investors
Brazil is back on the radar of foreign investors amid soaring oil prices, a strong real, and high interest rates.
Financial institutions and international analysts have begun to treat the country as an attractive destination among emerging markets.
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A Bank of America report questioned whether Brazil could be the “next gold,” referring to the asset’s recent strong performance in the global market. Goldman Sachs also highlighted the country among beneficiaries of rising oil prices.
The movement gained momentum with the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis increased attention on energy exporters, a position that favors Brazil in the current scenario.
The IMF increased its projection for Brazilian growth in 2026 from 1.6% to 1.9%. The institution assessed that the country could benefit in the short term by selling more energy abroad than it buys.
Martín Castellano, head of research for Latin America at the IIF, stated that Brazil has been pointed to as one of the most attractive locations in the emerging world. He also cited discussions about elections and economic policy.
The perception gained strength before the IMF and World Bank meetings in April.
Rising oil prices boost external gains
The central explanation lies in the weight of commodities. Even with negative global effects, the war can favor countries that sell oil and raw materials, especially when international supply experiences disruptions and prices rise.
Oil prices have advanced more than 30% since the end of February, before the start of the war in the Middle East.
The rise makes transport, industrial production, and food more expensive, especially in import-dependent economies.
These countries tend to face higher inflation, a devalued currency, and loss of income. For energy exporters, the effect can be different, with increased revenues and improved terms of trade.
In Brazil’s case, higher international prices mean greater gains. The country is considered by the IMF a net energy exporter because it sells more oil and derivatives abroad than it buys.
In the World Economic Outlook released in April, the IMF assessed that the war should have “a small net positive effect” on Brazil in 2026. The estimated gain is about 0.2 percentage points.
High interest rates sustain capital inflow
In addition to commodities, Brazil stands out for its high interest rates and the weakening dollar. This environment helps maintain interest in Brazilian stocks, fixed-income securities, and exposure to the real.
The BofA report, published on April 14, indicated that investors remain comfortable maintaining exposure to the Brazilian real and Brazilian stocks, following meetings with clients in New York.
Goldman Sachs, in an April 15 assessment, also evaluated Brazil as an interesting focus due to the momentum of raw materials, attractive valuations, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts.
As of April 22, foreign capital in B3 totaled R$ 64.42 billion in 2026. This value is more than double the R$ 25.47 billion recorded throughout 2025.
Data from Elos Ayta shows that 61.2% of all capital that entered the Brazilian stock exchange in 2026 came from abroad. The trend of increasing international flow has been observed since 2023.
The Ibovespa, however, lost about 10,000 points after reaching an all-time high on April 14. Analysts treat the drop as a typical flow adjustment after a prolonged rise, not a structural alert.
Foreign investor attention: Real strengthens with extra dollars
An IIF estimate indicates that every US$10 rise in oil generates approximately an additional US$4 billion in dollar inflows into Brazil’s external accounts. This volume is equivalent to approximately 0.2% of GDP.
Robin Brooks, from the Brookings Institution, called the moment a “perfect storm” for the real. He projected the dollar below R$ 4.50 and compared the scenario to 2022.
That year, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Brent rose 40% in the first quarter. The real advanced 20% and became the best-performing currency among emerging markets.
In 2026, the real was the currency that appreciated the most against the dollar until April 17, with a 10.4% increase, according to a survey by Elos Ayta. The influx of dollars reinforces this movement.
Risks involve interest rates, election, and fertilizers
The structural change in the oil sector reduced Brazil’s vulnerability. Castellano recalled that Brazil was a net energy importer until 2017, but later emerged as a net crude oil exporter.
In 2024, oil was Brazil’s most exported product for the first time, surpassing soybeans. Last year, the result was repeated, and the country consolidated its position as the seventh largest exporter worldwide.
Even so, the national industry imports about 10% of the gasoline and up to 25% of the diesel consumed, due to a lack of capacity at local refineries. Nevertheless, external shocks affect the country less today.
A reduction in interest rates could deter foreign investors, although it facilitates credit and stimulates the domestic economy. In March, the Central Bank cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 14.75% per year.
The market already expects a new reduction, possibly to 14.5% per year. The presidential elections in October and the global price of fertilizers could also interfere with the scenario considered attractive.
The price of fertilizers completes the international concerns. The Middle East supplies about one-third of Brazilian nitrogen imports, while Iran accounts for about 20% of Brazilian corn exports.
As agribusiness drives the economy and Brazil does not produce its own fertilizers, disruptions in supply or trade could neutralize some of the gains linked to Brazilian oil, the real, and commodities.
With information from BBC.
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