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Meteorologists are already monitoring the impacts of Pacific warming on the Brazilian winter, while projections indicate a less severe season in extreme temperatures, but marked by increased humidity, rainfall, and rapid weather changes in various regions of the country
The winter of 2026 in the Southern Hemisphere will officially begin on June 21, at 05:25 Brasília time, marking the winter solstice and also the longest night of the year. The season will continue until September 22, when spring will begin.
But, contrary to what many Brazilians expected after the intense cold episodes recorded in 2025, the most recent climate projections point to a very different scenario this year. According to information released by the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States), the winter of 2026 is expected to be wetter, less severe, and with a lower frequency of extreme cold waves in Brazil.
The change in climate pattern occurs amid the gradual advance of the El Niño phenomenon in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is already beginning to directly influence the meteorological models monitored for the coming months.
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El Niño is expected to completely change the behavior of winter in Brazil
According to the latest data from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the Equatorial Pacific will enter a more intense warming process between June and August 2026, precisely during the Brazilian winter period.
Meteorological models indicate that the chances of El Niño consolidation exceed 80% between August and October, significantly increasing the possibility of climate impacts in various regions of the country.
Meanwhile, countries in the Northern Hemisphere recently faced a winter marked by intense snow and extremely low temperatures, the Brazilian scenario tends to follow a different dynamic.
This occurs because El Niño alters the global atmospheric circulation, directly influencing rainfall regimes, temperature, and the formation of cold air masses in South America.
According to specialists, this warming of the Pacific waters may even evolve into a “super El Niño” in the second half of 2026, a scenario that usually causes significant changes in Brazilian climate behavior.
Moreover, the phenomenon usually increases humidity in Southern Brazil, favoring more frequent rains and reducing prolonged periods of intense cold.
Meteorologist predicts warmer and wetter winter in 2026
Analyzing current climate projections, meteorologist Piter Scheuer stated that there are no indications of an extremely harsh winter in 2026.
“The winter will actually be warmer than in recent years,” warned the specialist.
According to Scheuer, the season is expected to record a higher frequency of rain, especially in the southern states of the country, a scenario quite different from some recent periods of intense cold.
“It will be a wetter winter. There will be cold, but it will be much less cold than last winter,” he explained.
Still according to the meteorologist, 2025 presented much more significant cold episodes, including strong frosts and even relevant occurrences of snow in mountainous areas of Southern Brazil.
For 2026, however, the trend is for faster and less persistent polar air entries.
“There will be some frost episodes, but it doesn’t compare to last winter,” said Scheuer.
This change can directly impact sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and energy consumption, especially in regions that traditionally record lower temperatures during the season.
Chances of snow decrease and experts warn of more unstable winter
One of the biggest questions among residents of the Southern Region involves precisely the possibility of snow in 2026.
According to Piter Scheuer, although the occurrence is not entirely ruled out, the chances have decreased considerably compared to the previous year.
The influence of El Niño tends to increase humidity and the frequency of rains, making it difficult to form ideal conditions for snow in the Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul mountains.
“There’s a chance of snow, but it’s small. Much smaller than last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen at all,” said the meteorologist.
In 2025, Southern Brazil recorded three snow episodes in cities like São Joaquim, Urupema, and Bom Jardim da Serra, in Santa Catarina. However, current models indicate that this pattern is unlikely to repeat with the same intensity this year.
“This year, if there is one, is a lot,” emphasized Scheuer.
Furthermore, experts warn that the winter of 2026 should present rapid weather changes, alternating short cold periods with a quick return of rain.
The prevailing trend points to brief cold air entries, without long sequences of extremely low temperatures.
Spring may also suffer impacts from El Niño in 2026
Current projections also indicate that El Niño may continue to influence Brazilian weather even after the end of winter.
According to meteorological models analyzed by NOAA, the spring of 2026 may begin under strong influence from Pacific warming, increasing rainfall episodes and atmospheric instability in southern states of the country, especially in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul.
In this sense, experts are closely monitoring the predicted climate behavior for the second half of the year, as events associated with El Niño often cause significant impacts in urban, agricultural, and environmental areas.
Thus, the current scenario points to a less severe winter in terms of extreme cold, but potentially wetter, more unstable, and marked by frequent climate changes in various Brazilian regions.
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