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Cold numbers put pressure on the Cup and left Brazilian fans with a bitter taste after the winless debut. The simulation shows strong favorites, a tough fight for top scorer, and a Brazil that still needs to convince on the field.
The World Cup has entered a phase of growing tension, with teams trying to confirm favoritism before the final scheduled for July 19.
Now, a supercomputer created by scientists at the University of Liverpool has put numbers on the competition and pointed out which countries appear stronger to lift the trophy.
The result is striking because it does not measure just tradition or reputation. The projection combines player quality, on-field interaction, risk of injuries, suspensions, and even playing conditions.
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Spain appears with 26.1 percent and opens an advantage over other favorites
The Spain team appears as the main candidate for the title, with a 26.1 percent chance of winning the World Cup.
The number came after 1,000 simulations made by the model, which calculated the possibilities of each team within the tournament.
England occupies second place, with 17 percent. Then comes France with 13.5 percent, Argentina with 12.4 percent, and Portugal with 10.6 percent.
The projection reinforces an uncomfortable scenario for fans accustomed to prominence. The fight for the title appears concentrated in a few teams, but does not place Brazil among the strongest names at the top.
Norway becomes a surprise with 3.6 percent and Haaland enters the center of the dispute
The big surprise of the simulations is Norway, which appears with a 3.6 percent chance of winning the World Cup.
The percentage is lower than that of the favorites, but it draws attention by placing the Norwegian team in an unexpected position within the tournament.
Dr. Benjamin Holmes stated that the model aligns with the bookmakers by placing Spain as the favorite, but highlighted Norway as one of the surprises in the simulations.
This detail gains even more weight because the team includes Erling Haaland, also pointed out as the main favorite in the race for the Golden Boot.
Model includes injuries, suspensions, weather, and altitude in the three-country tournament
According to the Daily Mail, a British newspaper with international reach specializing in general news, the tool uses machine learning to predict match results.
The model not only considers the individual quality of each athlete. It also calculates how players should interact with each other and with opponents during matches.
Since Euro 2024, the simulation has gained new layers. Now, the system includes injuries, suspensions, goal scorers, weather, and altitude.
These variables weigh even more in a Cup held in three host countries, with long journeys and different conditions throughout the tournament.
England may face Brazil before a final against Spain
The simulation indicates that England should win its group and have as its most likely rivals the Democratic Republic of the Congo and then Mexico.
After that, the projected path becomes much tougher. The calculations indicate a possible clash against Brazil in the quarter-finals.
Subsequently, England would face Portugal in the semi-finals before reaching a final against Spain, precisely the team pointed out as the biggest favorite by the supercomputer.
This projection puts Brazil in a curious position. The team appears less as a protagonist of the forecast and more as a dangerous obstacle in England’s path to the decision.
Brazil draws with Morocco 1-1 and the forecast increases discomfort
For the Brazilian public, the projection arrives at an uncomfortable moment. Brazil debuted with a 1-1 draw against Morocco, a result that immediately sparked criticism over the team’s performance.
The score doesn’t eliminate anything, but it weighs on the environment. In a short group stage Cup, starting without a win against a direct rival turns the next games into a test of reaction, pressure, and authority.
The discomfort increases because the supercomputer does not place Brazil at the center of the title dispute. The simulation points to Spain, England, France, Argentina, and Portugal above in the main scenario.
The situation becomes even more sensitive because Brazil carries the weight of five world titles, won in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, and 2002.
Now, the game against Haiti on June 19 becomes a practical obligation. A victory can ease the atmosphere and put Brazil back in control of the group.
Another setback, however, would increase the pressure before the duel against Scotland on June 24, a match that could define position, confidence, and path in the knockout stage.
Haaland leads Golden Boot with 19 percent and Oyarzabal closes in
In the race for the Golden Boot, an award given to the top scorer of the competition, Erling Haaland appears as the favorite, with a 19 percent chance.
The Spaniard Mikel Oyarzabal comes right behind, with 16.4 percent. The projection indicates that Haaland and Oyarzabal could finish the tournament with an expected average of 5.2 goals each.
Among the other strong names are Harry Kane with 12.2 percent, Kylian Mbappé with 11.9 percent, and Cristiano Ronaldo with 10.8 percent.
The list also includes young and veteran players known to the Brazilian public, such as Lamine Yamal, Julián Álvarez, Endrick, Lionel Messi, Raphinha, and Jude Bellingham.
Innsbruck also sees Spain ahead and shows a more open title
Experts from the University of Innsbruck also calculated the probabilities of the 48 participating teams and reached a similar reading about the favorite.
In this other calculation, Spain appears at the top, but with a 14.5 percent chance of winning the tournament.
England comes right behind, with 12.4 percent, practically at the same level as France, also with 12.4 percent. Germany appears with 11.2 percent.
Achim Zeileis, one of the main authors of the study, assessed that the competition for the title is more balanced compared to previous tournaments.
At the lower end of the projections, Jordan appears as the team with the least chance of winning the Cup. Scotland has only a 0.2 percent chance of winning the title.
The projections show that Spain arrives as a favorite, but not as the absolute owner of the Cup. Even the top name on the list still faces a scenario where most of the probability is spread among other teams.
For Brazil, the reading is tough. The team remains alive and competitive, but the draw in the debut and the coldness of the numbers create an uncomfortable feeling: it will still be necessary to prove on the field the weight that history already has off it.
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