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According to the energy specialist agency, global oil demand will be 9.3 million bopd lower than in 2019
Study by the International Energy Agency forecasts that oil demand in 2020 will be only 30 million bopd, due to the pandemic. The analyzed data show that in April, consumption fell by approximately 29 million bopd compared to the same period last year, reaching the lowest volume since 1995.
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Social distancing recommendations in 187 countries and territories drastically reduced global population mobility, resulting in a decrease in oil demand, which accounts for 57% of global demand.
According to the IEA: “The outlook for oil largely depends on the duration of the Covid-19 outbreak and the strength of the subsequent economic restart.” For the Agency, in the second half of the year, with the gradual return of population activities, there will be a recovery in demand, but even so, in December, the volume will be 2.7 million bopd lower than the same period last year.
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The Energy Agency also notes that the oil demand scenario will be dependent on the effects of Covid-19. In a favorable scenario, with a short period of social isolation and a rapid economic recovery, demand could decrease by only 6.5 million bopd in the second half. However, if there is a new outbreak of the virus in the next semester, the demand could be even lower.
Compared to fuel consumption in the first quarter of 2019, the volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel fell by 1.7 million bopd, 1.5 million bopd, and 1.2 million bopd in the quarter, respectively.
The institution further states that global energy demand will decline by 6%, the largest reduction in 70 years, in percentage terms. The final result could impact seven times more than the 2008 financial crisis.
