Portuguese 
English 
Spanish 
5 min of reading 
0 comments 
Understand How the Change in Reference Pricing Calculation of Oil Can Increase Public Revenues and Impact Brazilian States and Municipalities
The oil remains one of the most important natural resources in the global economy. In the Brazilian context, it represents not only a strategic source of energy but also one of the main bases of public revenue through royalties and special participations.
Thus, these resources are fundamental for funding public services, enabling infrastructure projects, and supporting social investments throughout the country.
Therefore, any change in the way of calculating the reference value of oil directly impacts the revenue of local and federal governments.
-
OPEC reduces oil demand forecast for 2026, but bets on global market recovery in 2027
-
Braskem’s new generation tankers will cross over 5,500 nautical miles between the U.S. and Brazil, reduce CO₂ emissions by 30%, and transport naphtha with modern engines, an optimized hull, and a focus on at-sea efficiency on a strategic route.
-
Weatherford secures offshore contracts in Brazil through 2030 with operations in the Búzios field and Campos Basin.
-
Oil-bearing rocks: the most oil-rich place on the planet, with more than 30 supergiant fields and 5 billion barrels in each one
In this regard, the National Agency of Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) recently announced a significant change in the reference pricing calculation of oil. Thus, the new methodology tends to increase public revenues and improve the compensation criteria paid by producing companies.
New ANP Methodology Takes Effect in September 2025
In July 2025, the ANP board updated resolution 874 of 2022, which had hitherto guided the calculation. As a result, the new rule takes effect from September 1, 2025, particularly for large companies in the sector.
On the other hand, small and medium-sized companies will continue to use the previous formula for a determined period.
Moreover, the effects of the new formula should emerge as early as November 2025, when royalties and special participations are distributed according to the new criterion.
From then on, the ANP will be able to adjust the pricing calculation criteria with greater flexibility, without relying on a fixed basket of oil types.
Consequently, the agency will be able to consider more updated international prices, which tends to increase the amounts paid by companies.
This change allows Brazil to keep up with global practices and improve the competitiveness of the national energy sector.
Finally, the government projects an increase in public revenue, especially in producing states and municipalities.
What Is the Reference Pricing Calculation of Oil
To better understand the change, it is necessary to realize that the reference price of oil (RPO) serves as a basis for calculating the financial compensations that producing companies must pay to the Union, States, and municipalities.
This value, therefore, does not directly correspond to the selling price, but results from a technical calculation made by the ANP.
In this calculation, the agency considers elements such as the international price of Brent oil, the main global benchmark, and applies a quality differential over this value.
This differential depends on specific characteristics of national oil, such as density and sulfur content, which vary according to the extraction field.
Additionally, derivatives like gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil also directly influence the calculation.
The combination of these variables aims to reflect the real value of Brazilian oil, ensuring a fair payment to the government.
Likewise, the methodology takes into account the environmental and logistical conditions of the production chain.
International Environmental Changes Influenced the Decision
From this perspective, the ANP’s decision is directly connected to international environmental standards, such as the IMO 2020 regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
According to this rule, the sulfur content allowed in marine fuel oil has been reduced from 3.5% to 0.5% on certain trade routes, aiming at reducing the environmental impacts of maritime transport.
This change, therefore, directly affected the price of fuel oil, one of the products used to calculate the quality differential of Brazilian oil.
In light of this, the ANP decided to incorporate two fuel oil standards into the new formula: one with 0.5% sulfur and another with 3.5%, both still relevant in the international market.
Thus, each type of oil counts equally at 50%, which makes the calculation more balanced.
With this adjustment, the RPO comes closer to commercial reality and can, therefore, increase the amounts transferred to the public sector.
In this way, the measure strengthens Brazil’s alignment with the global sustainability agenda in the energy sector.
Historical Evolution of the Reference Calculation in Brazil
Historically, the reference pricing calculation of oil evolved as the Brazilian oil industry grew. Until the late 1990s, Petrobras held the monopoly on oil exploration in the country.
However, with the opening of the market and the entry of private companies, the government needed to establish rules to ensure that the exploration also benefited society.
In this context, the creation of the ANP in 1997 marked the beginning of independent regulation of the sector.
Since then, the agency has defined methodologies to calculate the amounts owed by companies, based on technical and economic criteria.
The adoption of the RPO emerged as a way to standardize and bring transparency to public revenue.
Over time, the ANP began adjusting the calculation formulas, precisely to better reflect market variations.
With the discovery of the pre-salt and the growth of deep-water production, new updates became necessary.
Now, the 2025 model expands this process, by incorporating environmental, technical, and international economic factors into the compensation calculation.
Public Revenue Should Grow with New Formula
With the new formula, producing states and municipalities are expected to experience a significant increase in revenue.
This occurs because a higher RPO results in larger sums paid in royalties and special participations.
As a consequence, it will be possible to expand investments in health, education, public safety, and infrastructure.
Additionally, producer cities such as Macaé (RJ), Santos (SP), and Vitória (ES) may experience greater fiscal stability.
These locations, which have historically faced budget fluctuations linked to the international price of oil, will have more predictable and consistent revenues.
On the other hand, sector companies will need to adjust their financial planning.
Despite an increase in costs, the predictability in the rules and regulatory security may attract new investments.
Thus, the business environment becomes more attractive, favoring modernization and growth of the sector.
Balance Between Revenue and Competitiveness
In general, the change in the reference pricing calculation of oil represents an important advance.
The new model seeks to balance public interest with industry competitiveness, promoting fiscal justice without harming the sector’s attractiveness.
Furthermore, by aligning its rules with international standards, Brazil demonstrates its ability to modernize regulation and promote greater efficiency.
With clearer rules that are consistent with market reality, all involved parties benefit: government, companies, and society.
Therefore, in a global energy transition scenario, the methodological update from the ANP shows that it is possible to reconcile economic development with environmental responsibility and justice in the distribution of resources.
In the long term, this measure can help consolidate Brazil’s role as a strategic player in the global energy sector.
-
1 person reacted to this.