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Simulations with 10,000 Scenarios Indicate That Asteroid 2024 YR4, With 60 Meters in Diameter and a 4.3% Chance of Lunar Collision in 2032, Could Generate a Flash Comparable to the Brightness of Venus, Ejection of Up to 100 Million Kilograms of Rocks, and Intense Meteor Showers Observable from Earth
Asteroid 2024 YR4, with about 60 meters in diameter, has a 4.3% chance of colliding with the Moon on December 22, 2032, potentially generating a flash visible from Earth, launching up to 100 million kilograms of rocks, and causing extreme meteor storms, according to a recent study.
Orbital Simulations Detail the Trajectory of the Asteroid and the Most Likely Lunar Impact Regions
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, and gained attention in February 2025, when initial calculations indicated the highest probability ever recorded for an object of this size colliding with Earth.
Subsequent trajectory estimates ruled out any risk of impact with Earth during its close approach on December 22, 2032. However, calculations maintained a 4.3% chance of collision with the Moon.
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To assess this scenario, researchers created computational models of the inner solar system, including the asteroid, the planets, the Moon, and the Sun, simulating thousands of possible trajectory variations over time.
In total, 10,000 orbital simulations were conducted, allowing for the mapping of lunar surface areas with the highest probability of impact, as well as identifying recurring patterns associated with the gravitational dynamics of the Earth-Moon system.
Predicted Impact Corridor Extends for About 3,000 Kilometers on the Lunar Surface
The simulations indicate that, if the collision occurs, the impact would take place along a corridor of approximately 3,000 kilometers on the surface of the Moon, located north of the Tycho crater.
For observers in the Northern Hemisphere of Earth, this band corresponds to the lower half of the visible lunar disk. For observers in the Southern Hemisphere, the apparent orientation would be reversed, according to the analysis presented.
In addition to orbital simulations, researchers executed high-resolution models to reproduce the impact itself, tracking the event over a period of about 500 seconds.
These models allowed for tracing the trajectory of the ejected fragments, including those that would escape the Moon’s gravity and head toward space or Earth, connecting the event to the depths of Earth through indirect effects.
Impact Could Generate a Flash Comparable to the Brightness of Venus in the Night Sky
According to the study, the impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 would release energy equivalent to about 6.5 million tons of TNT, marking the largest lunar impact ever recorded in the modern era.
This release of energy would produce a flash with an estimated magnitude between -2.5 and -3, comparable to the brightness of Venus observed in the night sky from Earth.
The flash would last a total of 200 to 300 seconds, although it would be clearly visible for at least 10 seconds above the background brightness level, allowing reliable visual detection.
The predicted time for the impact would be at 10:19 AM EST, equivalent to 3:19 PM UTC. At that moment, the phenomenon would be observable in regions where the Moon was already above the horizon.
Lunar Illumination Reduces Chances of Naked Eye Observation, but Telescopes Enhance Visibility
On the day predicted for the collision, about 70% of the lunar surface will be illuminated by the Sun, limiting the visibility of the flash to the naked eye only if the impact occurs on the unilluminated portion.
Researchers estimate that the probability of this specific condition being met is only 2.85%, considering only the scenarios in which the asteroid actually strikes the Moon.
Even so, the study indicates that the main flash would be detectable by amateur telescopes, regardless of the exact position of the impact on the lunar surface.
In addition to the main flash, the impact would lift a large amount of lunar rocks that would return to the surface, potentially generating thousands of small secondary flashes.
Ejection of Up to 100 Million Kilograms of Rocks Could Cause Superstorms of Meteors
The simulations indicate that up to 100 million kilograms of lunar material could be ejected toward Earth as a direct consequence of the impact of asteroid 2024 YR4.
This material would give rise to what researchers describe as meteor superstorms, with intense showers expected to occur between two and 100 days after the collision.
These events would be more visible in the Earth’s night sky and represent a unique opportunity to observe the effects of lunar impacts on the Earth-Moon system.
Although the scenario remains uncertain, researchers emphasize that a predictable impact of this type constitutes a rare natural experiment, with the potential to enhance scientific understanding of the collision processes of small celestial bodies and their connections to the depths of Earth.
Scientific Relevance of the Event and Future Expectations of Researchers
According to the authors, the occurrence of this impact would allow for the validation of theoretical models used to predict damage, debris dispersion, and secondary effects associated with space collisions.
The event would temporarily transform the Earth-Moon system into a large natural laboratory, providing observational data that is rarely available for modern planetary science.
Despite the low probability, researchers continue to monitor the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4, refining models and awaiting future observations that could reduce the uncertainties associated with the scenario.
This article was based on information published by the site Live Science and data from a scientific study made available on the arXiv preprint server about the possible impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 on the Moon.
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