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The Panama Canal is facing a worrying crisis that threatens its operation, and the cause is not related to political issues like Trump or China.
The Panama Canal, one of the pillars of world maritime trade, is facing an unprecedented crisis that threatens its operation and efficiency. According to the NYT, unlike what many might imagine, the problem is not related to global political tensions or disputes for influence between powers such as the United States and China
Who crosses the Panama Canal has experience that goes far beyond engineering. This historic construction, vital to global trade, now faces a silent and growing threat: climate change.
More than concerns about foreign influence or management policies, it is the climate that has put the canal’s future at risk. In 2023 and 2024, one of the worst droughts on record showed the challenges that water shortages can bring to one of the world’s most important passages.
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The importance of the Panama Canal
The Panama Canal has been an essential link in world trade since its opening in 1914. Connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, it dramatically reduces navigation times and transportation costs for thousands of vessels each year.
Its expansion in 2016 allowed the traffic of larger vessels, reinforcing its relevance. However, its operation depends on one essential condition: the availability of fresh water.
Each crossing of the canal uses about 200 million liters of water, taken mainly from Gatun Lake.
With less rain, the lake levels decrease, compromising the functioning of the locks that move ships from one ocean to the other.
In 2023, rainfall was scarce even during the wet season, leading canal authorities to reduce the number of daily crossings by up to 40%.
The 2023–2024 drought
The drought that hit Panama between 2023 and 2024 was amplified by a strong El Niño episode. This climate phenomenon, intensified by global warming, altered rainfall patterns around the world, leaving the canal's reservoirs in a critical situation.
As water became scarcer, crossings were limited and costs soared. Shipping companies faced delays and additional costs, which were passed on to consumers in the form of more expensive products.
At one point, rights of passage were even auctioned off, exacerbating instability in global trade.
Impacts on global trade
The reduction in canal capacity had a ripple effect on the market. Alternative routes, such as the rail corridor in southern Mexico, gained prominence.
However, no option offers the same efficiency and scale as the canal. In the long term, Panama is likely to lose market share if the water crisis persists.
The role of Climate Change
Studies indicate that extreme weather events, such as droughts and storms, are becoming more frequent due to global warming.
In the case of Panama, higher temperatures increase the evaporation in reservoirs, worsening water shortages.
The problem is not just local. Climate change affects all global logistics, from shipping routes to transportation costs.
To guarantee the future of the canal, it will be necessary to invest in sustainable solutions, such as desalination technology and water collection systems.
Political tensions in the Panama Canal
Meanwhile, the Panama Canal is also facing external pressure. In 2023, then-US President-elect Donald Trump raised concerns about Chinese influence in the region and suggested the possibility of the US regaining control of the canal.
These statements were not well received by the Panamanian government, which reaffirmed sovereignty over the canal.
Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino said in a press conference: “The Panama Canal is Panamanian and belongs to Panamanians. This sovereignty was won with blood, sweat and tears."
The return of the canal to the Panamanians in 1999 was seen as a historic victory and a milestone of independence.
Control history
The history of the Panama Canal dates back to the 16th century, when the Spanish dreamed of a route that would connect both oceans.
However, it was only at the beginning of the 20th century that the United States took over the project, after the French failed to build the passage.
The construction of the canal was not only a feat of engineering, but also a milestone of American imperialism.
Panama gained independence from Colombia in 1903 with US support, but paid a high price: sovereignty over the canal was ceded to the Americans.
In the following years, the US carried out several interventions in Panama to protect its commercial interests. The most serious of these was the 1989 invasion, which left hundreds of civilians dead and marked a dark chapter in the relationship between the two countries.
Current challenges
In addition to climate issues, Panama faces new humanitarian challenges. Migrants from countries such as Haiti and Venezuela are trying to reach the United States through the dangerous Darien Gap.
This has placed additional pressure on the country's infrastructure and increased demands for international collaboration.
On the other hand, Panama's management of the canal has been widely praised over the past 25 years. The local government has managed to modernize the infrastructure and maintain the relevance of the canal, even in the face of adverse conditions.
Future perspectives
On the global stage, the importance of the Panama Canal as a trade route remains undeniable. However, the combination of climate change, commercial competition and political tensions requires urgent and coordinated solutions.
Investing in resilient infrastructure and international collaboration will be essential to ensure the canal continues to play its vital role in the global economy.
With water becoming an increasingly valuable resource, Panama finds itself at a crossroads. More than ever, the future of the canal depends on concrete action to address climate challenges.
Between its rich history and new challenges, the Panama Canal remains a symbol of global connection and human resilience.
