With Hydroelectric Plants Declining and Batteries Still on Paper, Brazil Should Increase Use of Polluting Sources for Energy Generation, Such as Thermal Power Plants, by 2034; Emissions of Pollutants Are Expected to Double in the Coming Years

Written by Rannyson Moura

Published on 19/02/2026 at 11:15

Updated on 19/02/2026 at 11:16

Estudo aponta que a redução das hidrelétricas e o atraso na implantação de baterias devem ampliar o uso de termelétricas no Brasil, elevando emissões e mudando o perfil da matriz elétrica.

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Study Points Out That The Reduction Of Hydroelectric Power Plants And The Delay In The Implementation Of Batteries Should Expand The Use Of Thermoelectric Plants In Brazil, Raising Emissions And Changing The Profile Of The Electricity Matrix.

Brazil may experience a silent turnaround in its electricity matrix. While renewable sources advance, thermoelectric plants are expected to increase their share in the coming years.

The reason is straightforward. Fewer hydroelectric plants with reservoirs. More intermittent energy, such as solar and wind. And, in addition, batteries still far from large-scale deployment.

This projection comes from the consultancy Aurora Energy Research. According to the study, the share of hydroelectric power plants is expected to drop from 42% in 2026 to 36% in 2030.

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Emissions Could Almost Double In Less Than Ten Years

The projections align with studies from the Energy Research Company (EPE), presented in the Decennial Energy Expansion Plan 2034.

The document indicates that thermoelectric generation from fossil fuels could nearly double in less than a decade.

As a result, emissions from the Brazilian electricity matrix could reach 24 million tons of CO₂ equivalent by 2034. For comparison, in 2024 the estimated volume was 14 million tons.

Furthermore, the latest Decennial Energy Expansion Plan 2035 reinforces the need to expand flexible sources. The rationale is clear: to ensure security for the system in the face of the accelerated growth of renewables.

Lack Of Large Reservoirs Changes The Game

Historically, hydroelectric plants with large reservoirs functioned as a kind of “natural battery.” They stored water and released energy when needed. However, new projects of this kind have become rarer.

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As a result, dependence on thermoelectric plants grows to supply periods without sun or wind. Aurora projects that Brazil will need to add about 47 GW of flexible capacity by 2045.

Although batteries are seen as a solution, their expansion remains uncertain. The Ministry of Mines and Energy has signaled, since 2023, the intention to contract storage systems to strengthen the National Interconnected System.

A specific auction is scheduled for April. However, the definitive model raises doubts. And there is a risk of postponement, as occurred in 2025.

In the meantime, thermoelectric plants continue to serve as a supply guarantee. But at what environmental and financial cost?

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With Hydroelectric Plants Declining and Batteries Still on Paper, Brazil Should Increase Use of Polluting Sources for Energy Generation, Such as Thermal Power Plants, by 2034; Emissions of Pollutants Are Expected to Double in the Coming Years

Study Points Out That The Reduction Of Hydroelectric Power Plants And The Delay In The Implementation Of Batteries Should Expand The Use Of Thermoelectric Plants In Brazil, Raising Emissions And Changing The Profile Of The Electricity Matrix.

Emissions Could Almost Double In Less Than Ten Years

Lack Of Large Reservoirs Changes The Game

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With Hydroelectric Plants Declining and Batteries Still on Paper, Brazil Should Increase Use of Polluting Sources for Energy Generation, Such as Thermal Power Plants, by 2034; Emissions of Pollutants Are Expected to Double in the Coming Years

Study Points Out That The Reduction Of Hydroelectric Power Plants And The Delay In The Implementation Of Batteries Should Expand The Use Of Thermoelectric Plants In Brazil, Raising Emissions And Changing The Profile Of The Electricity Matrix.

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