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The Unprecedented Numbers of Electoral Rejection of Lula in 2026 Show Unexpected Movements in the Brazilian Political Scenario, with the Expressive Advancement of Opponents and the Direct Impact on Future Electoral Strategies, Revealing an Atmosphere of Uncertainty for the Next Election.
The rejection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s candidacy for the 2026 elections has reached a new record, according to a Genial/Quaest survey released this Thursday, June 5.
Currently, 66% of Brazilian voters believe that the former president should not run for reelection, a significant increase from the 62% recorded in the last survey conducted in March of this year.
| Rejection of Lula’s Candidacy | Percentage (%) |
|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 66 |
| March 2025 | 62 |
The survey interviewed 2,004 people across 120 municipalities throughout the country between May 29 and June 1, providing a detailed analysis of the political scenario involving Lula and his potential opponents for the next presidential election.
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The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points.
Among the respondents, only 32% want to see Lula as a candidate for reelection, a decrease of three percentage points since March.
| Support for Lula’s Candidacy for Reelection | Percentage (%) |
|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 32 |
| March 2025 | 35 |
Even among the loyal electorate of the Workers’ Party (PT), enthusiasm has diminished, with 84% supporting a new candidacy, down from 86% at the beginning of the year.
| Support of Lulistas for Lula’s Candidacy | Percentage (%) |
|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 84 |
| March 2025 | 86 |
For left-wing voters who are not Lulistas, support has also fallen to 61%.
Meanwhile, those politically unaligned reject the candidacy of the PT member in 73% of cases.
The most intense opposition comes from voters identified with the right, especially among Bolsonaro supporters, who reject Lula’s candidacy by an impressive 95%.
This rejection is equally shared by 95% of voters who consider themselves right-wing but do not support Jair Bolsonaro.
| Electorate Profile | Support (%) | Rejection (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Left-Wing Non-PT Voters | 61 | – |
| Politically Unaligned Voters | – | 73 |
| Bolsonaro Supporters | – | 95 |
| Right-Wing Voters (Non-Bolsonaro Supporters) | – | 95 |
Lula Loses Popularity and Faces Closer Opponents
According to the same institute, Lula has reached the lowest popularity rating since the beginning of his third term, which has opened space for his competitors in 2026 to gain ground.
In a potential second round against Jair Bolsonaro, although the former president is ineligible until 2030, Lula and Bolsonaro are tied with 41% of voting intentions each.
This represents a decline for Lula compared to March, when he led with 44% against 40% for Bolsonaro.
| Voting Intentions in Second Round Lula x Bolsonaro | Lula (%) | Bolsonaro (%) |
|---|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 41 | 41 |
| March 2025 | 44 | 40 |
The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), has also narrowed the gap between himself and the PT member, reaching 40% of voting intentions against 41% for Lula, a difference that has significantly narrowed.
In December 2024, Lula had 52% and Tarcísio only 26%.
| Voting Intentions in Second Round Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas | Lula (%) | Tarcísio (%) |
|---|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 41 | 40 |
| December 2024 | 52 | 26 |
Another rival gaining strength is Michelle Bolsonaro, former first lady, who shows 39% of voting intentions against 43% for the PT member, reducing the former president’s lead since March, when the numbers were 44% to 38%.
| Voting Intentions in Second Round Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro | Lula (%) | Michelle Bolsonaro (%) |
|---|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 43 | 39 |
| March 2025 | 44 | 38 |
Other Governors Gain Strength in the Presidential Race
The governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), is also closing in on the former president in a potential second round, with 38% of voting intentions against 40% for Lula, a difference that was larger in March (42% to 35%).
| Voting Intentions in Second Round Lula x Ratinho Jr. | Lula (%) | Ratinho Jr. (%) |
|---|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 40 | 38 |
| March 2025 | 42 | 35 |
Romeu Zema (Novo), governor of Minas Gerais, stands at 33%, against 43% for Lula, although he has improved his performance since the beginning of the year, when the gap was wider, from 45% to 28%.
| Voting Intentions in Second Round Lula x Romeu Zema | Lula (%) | Romeu Zema (%) |
|---|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 43 | 33 |
| January 2025 | 45 | 28 |
Meanwhile, Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), governor of Goiás, shows 33% of voting intentions, against 44% for Lula, with a notable growth in his electoral base since December 2024, when he recorded only 20%.
| Voting Intentions in Second Round Lula x Ronaldo Caiado | Lula (%) | Caiado (%) |
|---|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 44 | 33 |
| December 2024 | 54 | 20 |
Of the names mentioned, only Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), licensed federal deputy and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has not been able to narrow the gap with Lula, remaining at 34% of voting intentions against 44% for the PT member.
| Voting Intentions in Second Round Lula x Eduardo Bolsonaro | Lula (%) | Eduardo Bolsonaro (%) |
|---|---|---|
| May/June 2025 | 44 | 34 |
What the Rejection of Lula Says About the Current Political Scenario?
According to analysts, the increase in rejection towards Lula reflects both the natural wear and tear of those in power and the government’s difficulties in maintaining its electoral base during a time of economic and social crisis.
Additionally, the strengthening of right-wing and center-right figures signals a more intense polarization and the possibility that the 2026 race will be more fierce than previous ones.
The population shows fatigue with extreme discourses, which may open space for more moderate candidates who offer practical proposals for urgent issues, such as inflation, unemployment, and public security.
How the Electoral Scenario Could Unfold Until 2026?
With the current landscape, Lula faces a growing challenge to maintain his popularity and the internal cohesion of the PT.
The approach of opponents indicates that the election could have a very tight second round, with several strong names in the field.
The presence of Bolsonaro, even though ineligible, may influence the process, especially due to the weight of his electoral base and his impact on national politics.
Moreover, the performance of the governors mentioned in the survey indicates that the electorate is attentive to regional leaders who could project themselves in the national scenario.
With rising rejection and the advancement of opponents in the political scene, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva must face a series of challenges to secure his presence and competitiveness in the 2026 elections.
Can the current wear be reversed, or will the downward trend continue until the election? And you, reader, how do you see this presidential race? Leave your opinion in the comments.
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