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Oxford Economics report indicates that the two countries are among the least vulnerable to the phenomenon and may receive favorable conditions for grain production
The El Niño may bring unexpected relief to the agribusiness of Brazil and Argentina, especially in corn and soybean producing regions.
A report by Oxford Economics, released on June 25, 2026, placed the two countries among the least exposed to rising food prices.
Heavier rains may improve conditions for certain crops and, consequently, favor grain production.
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The effects, however, are not expected to occur uniformly. Corn and soybeans may benefit, while fresh foods may still face temporary increases.
Report analyzes risks in 20 emerging markets
Oxford Economics assessed the possible impacts of El Niño on food production and prices in 20 emerging markets.
The survey classified South America as the least vulnerable region to risks related to the climate phenomenon.
Brazil and Argentina appear among the countries with the least exposure. Both also have a higher possibility of receiving favorable conditions for important agricultural crops.
The main products that may be favored are:
- Corn;
- Soybeans.
Better results in these crops may help reduce broader pressures on food prices.
El Niño modifies rainfall and agricultural conditions
El Niño is marked by the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters, a factor capable of altering weather patterns in different parts of the world.
Some producing regions may face periods of drought. Other areas, in turn, may record higher volumes of rain.
Agricultural regions of Brazil and Argentina may receive rainfall favorable to crop development.
The result will depend mainly on the location, regularity, and intensity of the rains.
Rains may favor corn and soybeans
Heavier rains may benefit producing areas of Brazil and Argentina, according to the assessment by Oxford Economics.
The additional humidity can offer better conditions for the development of corn and soybean crops.
A more robust production can also decrease the risk of widespread grain shortages.
The main problem predicted for Latin America, therefore, is not related to a widespread shortage of these products.
The biggest threats are expected to be concentrated in specific fluctuations in fresh food prices.
Floods may affect fresh products
The increase in rainfall can also cause flooding in certain regions.
Interruptions in transportation and supply can temporarily affect different products, such as:
- Vegetables;
- Tubers;
- Fruits;
- Fish.
Consumers may face localized price increases for these foods during interruption periods.
The report highlights, however, that these changes do not represent a widespread shortage in the region.
Peru appears among the most exposed countries
Peru is among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of El Niño, mainly due to risks related to fishing activity.
Changes in Pacific water conditions can reduce fish availability and harm the sector’s production.
The decline in fishing activity can pressure prices and affect supply in the Peruvian market.
The impacts of El Niño, therefore, are expected to vary considerably among Latin American countries.
Price increases tend to be temporary
Fluctuations in fresh food prices can be intense during certain periods, according to Oxford Economics.
These increases, however, tend to be temporary, especially when they result from localized supply interruptions.
Central banks generally treat these variations as temporary shocks, not as permanent risks to inflation.
The duration of the impacts will depend on the weather conditions recorded in each region.
South America may face limited effects
South America appears in a more favorable position than other evaluated emerging markets.
Brazil and Argentina can turn the increase in rainfall into better conditions for corn and soybean crops.
Floods can still harm fresh food and cause temporary price increases.
El Niño can thus favor part of the agricultural production, although some sectors remain exposed to specific difficulties.
In your opinion, should El Niño help Brazilian crops or do the risks of flooding deserve greater concern? Leave your comment!
