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Researchers warn that climate change and pollution could reduce the performance of solar panels, compromising clean energy goals by 2030.
When we talk about solutions for a more sustainable world, solar energy always appears as one of the main bets. And in India, this is no different: the country has ambitious plans to install 100 GW of solar energy by 2030, positioning this matrix at the center of its strategies to face climate change. But a recent study brought an important warning: high pollution and rising temperatures can compromise the efficiency of solar panels and, consequently, reduce the country's energy potential.
Solar energy and the challenges of the future
Researchers at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi, have analyzed how climate change and air pollution could impact the performance of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Using climate data from 1985 to 2014 as a baseline, the study predicts that between 2041 and 2050, the efficiency of solar panels could drop by 3,3%. This drop may seem small, but it represents a considerable loss: between 600 and 840 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of less energy per year.
The reduction is due to two main factors: the increase in aerosols in the atmosphere — particles that reduce incident solar radiation — and the increase in temperatures, which impairs the optimal functioning of photovoltaic cells. India, which receives around 300 days of sunshine per year, is already facing a phenomenon called “solar dimming,” caused by pollution.
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The impact of pollution and climate change
The study outlined two possible scenarios for the future of solar energy in India. In the first scenario, efforts to control pollution and mitigate climate change are moderate. In the second scenario, there is strict pollution control but less intense climate action. Interestingly, the performance of solar panels was lower in the first scenario, showing that robust action against air pollution can mitigate the losses caused by reduced radiation.
According to the researchers, aerosols will continue to be a problem in much of the country, except in the northwest, where the Thar Desert will be most affected by dust clouds. In addition, rising temperatures will increase the number of days that solar cells operate above 45 degrees Celsius, a critical threshold for panel efficiency. This increase could range from 18 to 26 days per year, depending on the scenario analyzed.
Where will solar energy be most affected?
India is divided into five major power grids: north, south, west, east and northeast. According to the study, the number of solar-rich days, that is, those in which the solar radiation is sufficient to generate energy, it should fall in all regions. The northern, western and southern grids, which concentrate most of the country's solar parks, should face the greatest challenges.
Under moderate pollution controls and climate action, the eastern grid could see a 5,1% drop in solar potential, followed by the north with 3,4%. Under a scenario of strong pollution controls but weak climate action, the western grid could see the largest drop, with a 2,7% reduction. The only region with potential for increased solar radiation is the northeast, due to reduced cloud cover in the area.
The impact of high temperatures on solar panels
In addition to pollution, rising temperatures pose another challenge. Solar panels work best when the cells operate below 45 degrees Celsius. However, as global temperatures rise, more days will exceed this limit in India, compromising energy efficiency. This trend is most evident in highly irradiated regions, such as the northwest of the country.
To ensure the success of solar power in India, experts argue that it is essential to integrate climate resilience into solar infrastructure. This includes measures to mitigate the impacts of pollution and climate change, such as using more advanced technologies, investing in maintenance and adopting sustainable practices.
The study highlights that ensuring cleaner air can reduce radiation-induced efficiency losses, while urgent climate action can minimize heat impacts. These initiatives are key to India achieving its targets of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030, of which 100 GW will be solar.
