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International study indicates that extreme water-related events have become twice as frequent since the pre-industrial era, with droughts, floods, loss of soil moisture, and increasing pressure on agriculture, ecosystems, and supply in different regions of the planet today
Extreme droughts and floods have become approximately twice as frequent worldwide since the pre-industrial era, according to an international study that analyzed about 1,300 river basins between 1901 and 2019, revealing increasing instability in the global water cycle.
Droughts and floods advance together in the water cycle
The research was conducted under the European project AQUAGUARD and evaluated river flows and soil moisture for over a century. The survey indicates a transformation in the behavior of freshwater, mainly driven by climate change.
The main result shows that the planet does not only face a lack of water. In many regions, extremes alternate: periods of severe drought coexist with episodes of exceptional rain, a sign that the water system is losing stability.
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This movement is concerning because it affects rivers, lakes, soils, agriculture, ecosystems, and supply. The recent acceleration reinforces that water adaptation is no longer a distant topic.
Invisible water in the soil increases the risk for agriculture
The study highlights two types of water resources. Blue water includes rivers, reservoirs, and aquifers, more visible in public debate. Green water corresponds to moisture retained in the soil, essential for plants, forests, and rainfed crops.
This invisible reserve supports an important part of food production. Almost 60% of global agriculture depends directly on rain and soil moisture. When this retention decreases, crops become more exposed, even with acceptable reservoirs.
Therefore, looking only at rivers and reservoirs can hide the real size of the problem. The loss of soil moisture can reduce agricultural productivity, affect biodiversity, and degrade ecosystems before scarcity appears in urban supply.
Regions dry out while boreal areas become wetter
The analysis identified striking differences between regions. Tropical and subtropical zones show a growing trend towards drier conditions, precisely in areas already experiencing water stress. In these regions, stronger droughts pressure agriculture and ecosystems.
Conversely, areas in northern Europe, Canada, and Russia are experiencing unusually frequent humidity. The increase in water in these zones does not necessarily mean environmental relief, as it can accelerate dangerous processes in boreal regions.
The humidity favors the thawing of permafrost, a layer of permanently frozen soil that stores large volumes of carbon. When it thaws, this soil releases carbon dioxide and methane, gases that intensify global warming.
Human action aggravates extremes in various basins
Although climate change is pointed out as a factor, human activities amplify the imbalance in certain regions. Intensive extraction for irrigation, urban expansion, and transformation of natural ecosystems can reduce or nullify seasonal water gains.
In parts of Central Asia and India, climate changes could slightly increase water availability in certain periods. However, intensive irrigation, growing cities, and changes in land use outweigh this possible benefit.
The exploitation of aquifers beyond their natural replenishment capacity also reduces strategic reserves. Impermeable cities, deforested areas, and degraded wetlands lose the ability to absorb, store, and release water in a balanced way.
Floods also reveal failures in water security
Heavy rains do not always indicate an abundance of water. In many cases, floods show that the territory has lost the ability to regulate excess water. Degraded soils absorb less, paved areas accelerate runoff, and modified rivers reduce natural containment.
Thus, a lot of water falls in a short time, runs off quickly, and can reach the sea without recharging aquifers or being available for dry periods. The same region can face floods in one season and restrictions afterward.
This pattern already appears in areas of the Mediterranean, North America, and parts of Asia. To reduce risks, countries have adopted wetland restoration, riparian forest recovery, more efficient irrigation, water reuse, and monitoring.
Water management needs to consider climate, agriculture, biodiversity, energy, and land use as connected parts. Water security depends on understanding this network before extremes become more difficult to predict.
Do you notice impacts of droughts, floods, or changes in rainfall patterns in your region, in the countryside, in the city, or in water supply? Share in the comments how this reality appears in your daily life and which local measures seem most urgent to reduce risks.
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