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According to a Quaest survey, disapproval of Lula's government has reached 90%, reflecting the financial market's distrust. Fiscal policies, such as the new economic framework, have been widely criticized. It is time to ask: will the government be able to regain lost confidence?
One of the research released by Quaest this Wednesday (04) revealed that the disapproval of Lula government (PT) among managers, economists and financial analysts reached an impressive 90%.
This alarming fact calls into question the current administration's economic measures, generating a wave of skepticism about the country's future. But what is behind this almost unanimous dissatisfaction?
According to the research, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, the numbers reflect the negative perception regarding the government's recent fiscal decisions.
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The survey interviewed 105 financial market professionals, based in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, between November 29 and December 3, 2024.
The margin of error is 3,4 percentage points, but the results already offer a clear picture: only 3% of those interviewed evaluated the government positively, while 7% considered the management to be average.
A growing disapproval
Compared to the last survey, carried out in March of this year, the disapproval rate more than tripled.
At the time, only 26% of agents disapproved of the Lula government, with 6% approving and 30% giving regular assessments.
This abrupt increase is attributed, according to Quaest director Felipe Nunes, to the impact of recently presented fiscal measures, which did not meet market expectations.
Among the most criticized points is the package of spending cuts announced by the government last week.
Financial agents have questioned the viability of these measures and the real impact they could have on economic stabilization.
Popularity versus fiscal responsibility
Another worrying fact from the research indicates that 86% of those interviewed believe that Lula is more concerned with maintaining his popularity than with ensuring the country's fiscal balance.
Only 29% believe that the government demonstrates a real commitment to public accounts.
The distrust extends to the National Congress, which has lost its role as a “fiscal actor”, according to participants.
One of the reasons for this is the perception that, while the income tax exemption for those earning up to R$5 has a high chance of being approved, taxation on incomes above R$50 will hardly pass legislative scrutiny.
Haddad's performance
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad also suffered a setback in his popularity.
Approval of his work fell from 50% in March to 41% in December, while negative reviews rose from 12% to 24%.
Furthermore, 61% of respondents stated that Haddad's political strength is lower than at the beginning of his term, reflecting a significant drop in confidence in his ability to lead economic policy.
The fiscal package, a key part of its economic strategy, was considered “not at all satisfactory” by 58% of those interviewed and only “somewhat satisfactory” by the rest.
This negative perception reinforces skepticism regarding the efficiency of the measures adopted.
The new tax framework
Another aspect that was widely criticized was the new fiscal framework, which replaced the old spending cap implemented during the Michel Temer government.
For 58% of those interviewed, the new model has no credibility whatsoever, while 42% consider it only marginally reliable.
Most experts believe that the framework will not be sustainable in the long term, which increases concerns about the future of the Brazilian economy.
Additionally, we bring 96% of respondents assessed that the country's economic policy is headed in the wrong direction, with only 4% indicating that it is on the right track.
For 2025, pessimism prevails: 88% believe the economy will get worse, 10% believe it will remain stable and only 2% believe it will improve.
Investments on the run
The distrust in the government is also affecting resource allocation.
Following the announcement of the fiscal package, 67% of respondents said they plan to increase their investments abroad, while 30% intend to keep them at the same level and only 3% consider reducing them.
Despite this, some government measures were well received. The end of “fictitious death” – a pension paid to families of expelled military personnel – was evaluated positively by 99% of those interviewed.
However, this isolated decision was not enough to change the general perception of uncertainty.
An economic policy in check
The crisis of confidence in the Lula government represents an unprecedented challenge. With the financial market increasingly skeptical, management faces the difficult task of balancing fiscal responsibility and popularity.
While the new fiscal framework and spending cuts are divisive, it remains to be seen whether the actions taken by the government will be enough to regain investor confidence and return to the path of economic growth. How do you assess the Lula administration so far?
Ever since I can remember, I have never understood economists, who are always dissatisfied and want more and more. If the country is screwed but they are winning and doing well, they find a way to criticize it so that they can do better. And the country is doing well and consequently they are earning much more, and they will also criticize it, orchestrated, so that they can earn more. The people, oh these people, can go to hell, be left without work, starving, sick, without leisure. Who has ever seen a government take 8 million people out of hunger? That is an audacity that they would never allow, on the contrary...
The media, as always, works against Brazil. What they did in 64 was not enough; now they want to throw the country back into chaos. The question is: whose interests are behind this?