Direct Investment in Brazil Soars and Surprises Market, Says Central Bank: Inflow of US$ 10.6 Billion Exceeds Projection Ceiling and Boosts Economy in 2025

Written by Carla Teles

Published on 27/10/2025 at 13:19

O investimento direto no Brasil somou US$ 10,671 bilhões em setembro, informa o BC. Valor surpreende e supera teto das projeções do mercado. Veja análise.

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September Value Was Well Above The Expected Ceiling Of US$ 7.50 Billion; Data Is From The Central Bank And Reported By ISTOÉ Dinheiro.

The Direct Investment in Brazil (IDP) recorded a surprising net inflow of US$ 10.671 billion in September, as disclosed by the Central Bank (BC) and reported by ISTOÉ Dinheiro. The volume greatly exceeded the ceiling of projections from the Projeções Broadcast survey, which was US$ 7.50 billion, and was well above the median expected by analysts, of US$ 6.0 billion.

This robust performance in September boosts the accumulated figures. According to the BC, IDP totals US$ 63.320 billion in 2025. In the last 12 months, the amount of foreign capital directly injected into the real economy reached US$ 75.843 billion, representing 3.47% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The BC’s own expectation for the closing of 2025, according to the latest Monetary Policy Report (RPM), is US$ 70 billion.

Fixed Income Attracts Capital, But Stocks Register Outflow

Although direct investment (focused on equity and control of companies) came strong, foreign portfolio investment (financial market) showed mixed scenarios in September. According to ISTOÉ Dinheiro, the segment of Brazilian stocks had a net outflow of US$ 988 million. Despite being negative, the figure represents an improvement compared to September 2024, when the outflow was higher (US$ 1.684 billion).

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

Rollover Rate Exceeds 100% And Indicates Confidence In September

Another crucial indicator disclosed by the Central Bank was the rollover rate of medium- and long-term loans raised abroad, which measures companies’ ability to refinance their debts. In September, this rate reached 137%, according to data from ISTOÉ Dinheiro. The percentage is significantly higher than the 90% recorded in the same month of 2024.

A rate above 100% is considered positive, as it indicates that companies’ borrowings in the external market were sufficient not only to roll over (pay) the commitments that matured during the period but also to obtain new resources. The rollover rate of direct loans was the standout, jumping from 69% (in Sept/2024) to 137% (in Sept/2025).

Despite the strong monthly result, the year-to-date (January to September) still inspires caution. The total rollover rate for 2025 stands at 91%. This means that, in the aggregate for the year, the borrowings have not been enough to cover all maturities, contrasting with the same period in 2024, when the rate was positive at 109%.

The data from September shows impressive momentum for the Direct Investment in Brazil, but the stock market and accumulated rollover for the year still generate debate. Do you believe this inflow of US$ 10.6 billion is a turning point in confidence? Does the high of fixed income offset the outflows from stocks? Leave your opinion in the comments; we want to understand how you analyze this scenario.

Direct Investment in Brazil Soars and Surprises Market, Says Central Bank: Inflow of US$ 10.6 Billion Exceeds Projection Ceiling and Boosts Economy in 2025

September Value Was Well Above The Expected Ceiling Of US$ 7.50 Billion; Data Is From The Central Bank And Reported By ISTOÉ Dinheiro.

Fixed Income Attracts Capital, But Stocks Register Outflow

Rollover Rate Exceeds 100% And Indicates Confidence In September

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Direct Investment in Brazil Soars and Surprises Market, Says Central Bank: Inflow of US$ 10.6 Billion Exceeds Projection Ceiling and Boosts Economy in 2025

September Value Was Well Above The Expected Ceiling Of US$ 7.50 Billion; Data Is From The Central Bank And Reported By ISTOÉ Dinheiro.

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Rollover Rate Exceeds 100% And Indicates Confidence In September

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