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The Intensification of Climate Change Projects an Unprecedented Scenario of Internal and International Displacement, in Which Human Migration Begins to Be Shaped by Extreme Events, State Decisions, Global Agreements, New Borders, and Formal Mechanisms of Population Relocation
The advancement of climate change could profoundly transform human migration by 2070, requiring political and social decisions on mass displacements, organized relocation, fortified borders, and new citizenship regimes, according to an analysis presented by Susannah Fisher in a work published in 2025.
The author examines future scenarios in which parts of the planet become uninhabitable due to storms, droughts, floods, and wildfires. In these contexts, populations begin to move primarily within their own countries, forming large contingents of internally displaced persons, while governments and international institutions face increasing response limits.
Human Migration in a World Prepared for the Worst
In a scenario projected for 2070, the world would have prepared for extreme climate impacts. People would be displaced en masse, fleeing recurring events, remaining mostly within national borders and concentrating in large internal displacement camps.
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These camps could arise in both remote regions and extensive areas of urban expansion. In both cases, there would be a scarcity of services, few amenities, and severe limitations on economic and social support, making it difficult to rebuild previous living conditions.
For those trying to move beyond these areas, heavily fortified internal or national borders would emerge.
These barriers would be patrolled by armed agents, restricting the flow of people coming from areas classified as uninhabitable.
Humanitarian organizations would maintain monthly deliveries of food and drinking water.
The United Nations would teach rainwater collection and home cooling techniques, but such measures would be insufficient to compensate for the structural loss of viable territories.
Habitable Zones, Political Alliances, and Resource Conflicts
As environmental conditions worsen, regional agreements would allow for local displacements after sudden disasters. However, these mechanisms would not adequately respond to slow developmental changes that gradually erode the habitability of vast areas.
In this context, two global political alliances would emerge that transcend national borders. One would be formed by populations living in areas considered habitable. The other would gather those remaining in areas outside those limits.
In the United States, a border would be created around the southwestern states that ran out of water. The objective would be to prevent the entry of new displaced persons. Meanwhile, states would conflict with each other over the last flows of the Colorado River.
Populations situated in the uninhabitable zone would come to ignore both the UN and their own governments. In response, they would devise joint strategies to revitalize their regions, resorting to technologies such as solar geoengineering as an attempt at environmental recovery.
Meanwhile, cities located in habitable zones would continue to face population decline due to demographic reasons. Nevertheless, the process of human migration to these centers would be long, bureaucratic, and marked by resistance from local communities.
Climate Passports and Planned International Relocation
In an alternative scenario, a hurricane would devastate the coast of a small Caribbean country. The government would have triggered early warning systems, allowing the population to seek shelter before the storm’s arrival.
The next day, a rapid attribution study, certified by the UN, would show that wind intensity was significantly worsened by climate change. Based on this recognition, the government would issue climate passports.
These documents would allow citizens to choose, from a pre-defined list, countries willing to accept them. Among these countries would be historical carbon emitters that acknowledge their responsibility for worsening the climate crisis.
People could apply for relocation assistance directly from fossil fuel companies. These companies would have been forced to pay compensation after an innovative lawsuit, establishing a new model of reparation.
Many would choose to leave the country after the storm, prioritizing stability and future opportunities. Relocation could be temporary or long-term, allowing for the continuation of studies, businesses, or training during the reconstruction period.
Family Decisions and UN Programs in the Global South
In Bangladesh, communities situated in delta areas would face recurring cyclones and floods. A young family would decide to seek greater stability to ensure their children’s education.
Initially, they would consider migrating to Dhaka, but reports of overcrowding and frequent flooding during the monsoon would lead them to reconsider. They would choose to enroll in a UN support program for displaced persons.
In this program, they would discover secondary cities with capacity to receive new migrants. They would evaluate criteria such as family proximity, educational opportunities, and available vocational retraining courses.
The family would choose a smaller city with an active cultural life. They would participate in training aimed at local integration, maintaining regular visits to their old neighborhood and living continuously between two places.
Community Relocation and Adaptation in the United Kingdom
In the United Kingdom, a coastal community of 400 families in Norfolk would be relocated to Peak District National Park. The group, predominantly low-income and with strong social ties, lived under constant risk of flooding and storms.
An adventure tourism company would express interest in acquiring the original lands to develop activities in flooded areas. In light of this, the community would enroll in a government relocation program.
The residents would develop a collective plan, defining priorities and how to use the available financial resources. After prolonged negotiations with government agencies, an agreement would be reached.
Some residents would adapt well to the new location. Others would periodically return to the old lands, serving as guides for canoe tours through flooded areas, including old houses now submerged.
Islands, Floating Platforms, and the Idea of Network Nation
In a small developing island state, the government would invest in floating platforms and land reclamation from the sea. These projects would benefit residents with greater financial capacity to acquire new properties.
These residents would seek to attract forms of tourism based on low-carbon transport. However, part of the population would not be able to wait for the full implementation of solutions and would migrate with the support of the UN.
The displaced islanders would send financial remittances to their homeland and maintain dual citizenship. They would return for cultural festivals and preserve a sense of belonging to the island.
This model would come to be described as a “network nation,” connected to the sea and multiple territories, forming a network of social, economic, and cultural ties distributed geographically.
Political Choices and the Future of Human Migration
The scenarios presented raise central questions for individuals, communities, and voters. They also impose complex choices on countries that may welcome migrants and on governments operating in regional and international systems.
There is no single answer to these challenges. Many decisions involve high political costs in the short term, requiring difficult negotiations and redefinitions of historical responsibilities.
Even so, facing these choices becomes essential to building viable forms of coexistence on a planet affected by climate change, where human migration becomes a structural element of global social organization.
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