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With safeguards in effect since January 2026, China accelerated beef purchases, increased total demand by 25.75%, and placed Brazil at the center of the quota dispute before the possible imposition of a 55% tax.
China purchased 1.1 million tons of beef between January and April 2026, an increase of 25.75% in one year, driven by the safeguards initiated in January and the exporters’ race for quotas without a 55% tax.
Brazil expands presence in beef sent to China
Brazil accounted for more than half of Chinese purchases in the first four months. A total of 612.87 thousand tons were shipped to the Asian country, a volume 53.62% higher than recorded in the same period of 2025.
The Brazilian advance occurred while competitors lost ground. Argentina, the second-largest supplier to China, held 13% of the market and fell 1% in the year-to-date. New Zealand lost 2.21% of its share.
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Safeguard quotas accelerate exporters’ race
Chinese safeguard measures for beef came into effect on January 1, 2026. The regime seeks to protect local ranchers and provides quotas per country, with a risk of a 55% tax after the limit.
Australia has already sent 144.42 thousand tons, equivalent to 70.45% of the 205 thousand ton quota. Brazil filled 55.41% of the 1.1 million ton quota.
Argentina, despite the annual decline, has already used 34.58% of its 511 thousand ton quota. The pace shows that the dispute involves not only the volume sold but also the speed to occupy space before the end of the quotas.
Chinese market remains dependent on imports
Projections indicate that Brazil should reach the quota by mid-July, considering shipments in transit and the approximate 45-day period until arrival in China.
Even with the third-largest cattle herd in the world, behind Brazil and the United States, China does not produce enough to supply 1.4 billion inhabitants in the country’s domestic market. The rules may last up to three years.
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