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Asteroid 2024YR4 Travels at 17 km/s and Could Collide with Earth on December 22, 2032, Releasing Energy Equivalent to 500 Atomic Bombs. NASA Scientists Raise Impact Probability to 2.6%, Putting Millions in the Risk Zone.
NASA has issued a concerning alert about asteroid 2024YR4, classified as a “city killer” due to its size and impact force. Recent analyses have shown an increase in the probability of a collision, putting an extensive region at risk that houses over 100 million people. Fears are growing as scientists refine the calculations of its trajectory.
Asteroid 2024YR4: A Space Monster on a Dangerous Path
The 2024YR4 is currently traversing the galaxy at an impressive speed of 17 kilometers per second (38,028 miles per hour). At this moment, it is located in the constellation of Cancer and, despite moving away from Earth, NASA scientists expect it to loop back and return to our planet in 2032.
With an estimated size between 40 and 90 meters, it is large enough to cause significant devastation should it hit the Earth’s surface.
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Japan surprises the world by launching a wooden satellite only 10 cm in size into space: the LignoSat project spent 240 days exposed on the ISS, withstood radiation, and could reduce space debris generated by metal structures.
The Real Risk: A Devastating Explosion?
NASA scientists estimate that if 2024YR4 collides with Earth, it will release energy comparable to the explosion of 500 atomic bombs. The impact would be capable of devastating an extensive area around the collision point, generating destructive shockwaves.
Studies indicate that the explosion zone could have a radius of up to 50 kilometers, causing catastrophic damage to cities and infrastructure.
Current predictions point out that 2024YR4 could impact any point within a wide range that includes the tip of South America, parts of the Pacific Ocean, regions of South Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. This places millions of people in the “danger zone,” increasing global concern about the potential consequences of an event of such magnitude.
Increased Probability of Impact: A NASA Warning
NASA has revised its impact estimate for 2024YR4, raising the collision probability from 2.2% to 2.6%, which equates to about a one in 38 chance. Although this may seem like a small number, any increase in the probability of impact from an asteroid of this magnitude is a cause for great concern.
The projected date for a possible impact is December 22, 2032, and scientists are continuing to monitor its path with the aim of further refining predictions.
Is There Still Hope? What Do Experts Say
Molly Wasser, a public outreach coordinator at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, stated that as more observations are collected, the real probability of impact will be better understood. She emphasizes that the risk could be completely discounted in the future, but it is also possible that it could increase as the data is analyzed.
It is worth remembering that a similar case occurred with asteroid 99942 Apophis in 2004. Initially, scientists estimated a collision chance of 2.7%, but over time, calculations showed that it does not pose a significant threat for the next century.
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