Now: World Bank predicts a historic 24% rise in energy in 2026, with war in the Middle East blocking Hormuz and pressuring oil, fertilizers, and inflation.

Written by Romário Pereira de Carvalho

Published on 28/04/2026 at 16:47

Updated on 28/04/2026 at 16:48

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World Bank projects a 24% rise in energy prices in 2026, with Brent crude at $86, more expensive fertilizers, and a risk of higher inflation in developing economies affected by the prolonged war

Energy prices are expected to rise by 24% in 2026, reaching the highest level in four years, if the most severe disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East end in May, the World Bank projected on Tuesday.

Energy prices face risk of further escalation

The projected increase comes amid the war between the US and Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed.

The strait was blocking global access to energy, fertilizers, and other commodities from the Middle East.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

Strait of Hormuz is the focus of the oil shock

Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions have caused the largest oil supply shock ever recorded.

Before the war, the strait accounted for 35% of the global seaborne crude oil trade.

Brent crude was already more than 50% above the start of the year in mid-April. The forecast for 2026 points to an average price of $86 per barrel, compared to $69 per barrel in 2025.

Brent could average up to $115 per barrel this year if critical facilities suffer more damage and exports are slow to recover.

On Tuesday, Brent futures for June were trading at around $109 per barrel. On Monday, it had reached its highest close since April 7.

Fertilizers increase pressure on food

Fertilizers are expected to rise by 31% in 2026. Urea, the most widely used solid nitrogen fertilizer produced by converting natural gas into ammonia and carbon dioxide, is expected to jump by 60%.

This trend puts pressure on food supplies, reduces farmers’ incomes, and threatens upcoming harvests. The effect appears after the energy price hike and before a larger increase in inflation.

The World Food Programme estimates that an additional 45 million people could face acute food insecurity this year if the war is prolonged for an extended period.

Inflation and debt become heavier burdens

Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, stated that the war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first energy, then food, and finally, inflation.

With higher inflation, interest rates rise and debts become more expensive. The shock is expected to hit the poorest the hardest and worsen the problems of highly indebted developing countries.

In developing economies, average inflation is expected to reach 5.1% in 2026 in the baseline scenario. This figure exceeds last year’s 4.7% and is above pre-war forecasts.

If the conflict is prolonged, inflation in these countries could reach 5.8%. Growth is also expected to lose momentum, with an expected increase of 3.6% in 2026, below the 4% forecast before the war.

War maintains uncertainty over recovery

The trajectory of energy prices depends on the end of the most severe disruptions in May and the gradual normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by October.

Without this recovery, energy, fertilizers, food, inflation, interest rates, debts, and growth will remain under pressure, amplifying the impacts on consumers, farmers, and developing countries.

With information from Reuters.

Now: World Bank predicts a historic 24% rise in energy in 2026, with war in the Middle East blocking Hormuz and pressuring oil, fertilizers, and inflation.

World Bank projects a 24% rise in energy prices in 2026, with Brent crude at $86, more expensive fertilizers, and a risk of higher inflation in developing economies affected by the prolonged war

Energy prices face risk of further escalation

Strait of Hormuz is the focus of the oil shock

Fertilizers increase pressure on food

Inflation and debt become heavier burdens

War maintains uncertainty over recovery

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Now: World Bank predicts a historic 24% rise in energy in 2026, with war in the Middle East blocking Hormuz and pressuring oil, fertilizers, and inflation.

World Bank projects a 24% rise in energy prices in 2026, with Brent crude at $86, more expensive fertilizers, and a risk of higher inflation in developing economies affected by the prolonged war

Energy prices face risk of further escalation

Strait of Hormuz is the focus of the oil shock

Fertilizers increase pressure on food

Inflation and debt become heavier burdens

War maintains uncertainty over recovery

Forget petroleum-based asphalt: a Scottish company transforms 684,000 plastic bottles into one kilometer of road that is 60% more resistant and up to 10 times more durable, and the technology has already started replacing traditional asphalt in more than 30 countries.

With billions in loans, China is rebuilding Nigeria’s railway network from scratch, abandoning the British colonial tracks that have turned to scrap and creating a corridor of over 1,300 km to take the load off the roads of Africa’s largest economy.

Austrian engineers have developed an inflatable concrete technology that transforms flat slabs into domes using only air pressure, eliminating scaffolding and temporary forms, and potentially changing the way bridges, tunnels, and curved roofs are constructed worldwide.

Australia prepares to dredge 96.5 million m³ in Moreton Bay to deepen, widen, and realign channels of the Port of Brisbane, in a project of up to 25 years designed to accommodate larger ships and enhance maritime safety and regional port efficiency.

Cristiano Ronaldo builds a billion-dollar mansion in Portugal with 54,000 square feet, a 3-acre plot facing the Atlantic, private spa, indoor and outdoor pools, and an estimated value of an impressive R$ 385 million.

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Brazil erects a digital wall along 16,886 km of borders with 10 countries, using sensors, radars, military communications, and the Army’s decision-making system to protect one of the largest land stretches on the planet and showcase the technological strength of national defense.

For the first time in history, a submarine cable will descend to four thousand meters deep under the ice of the North Pole to ensure that the internet between Europe and Asia no longer depends on conflict zones in the Middle East.

While the world discusses geopolitics, China is quietly closing a deal with its Kazakh neighbor to secure grain supplies during any global food crisis, with more than 3,600 Kazakh companies already able to export directly to the Chinese market.