Now: World Bank predicts a historic 24% rise in energy in 2026, with war in the Middle East blocking Hormuz and pressuring oil, fertilizers, and inflation.

Written by Romário Pereira de Carvalho

Published on 28/04/2026 at 16:47

Updated on 28/04/2026 at 16:48

Be the first to react!

World Bank projects a 24% rise in energy prices in 2026, with Brent crude at $86, more expensive fertilizers, and a risk of higher inflation in developing economies affected by the prolonged war

Energy prices are expected to rise by 24% in 2026, reaching the highest level in four years, if the most severe disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East end in May, the World Bank projected on Tuesday.

Energy prices face risk of further escalation

The projected increase comes amid the war between the US and Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed.

The strait was blocking global access to energy, fertilizers, and other commodities from the Middle East.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

Strait of Hormuz is the focus of the oil shock

Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions have caused the largest oil supply shock ever recorded.

Before the war, the strait accounted for 35% of the global seaborne crude oil trade.

Brent crude was already more than 50% above the start of the year in mid-April. The forecast for 2026 points to an average price of $86 per barrel, compared to $69 per barrel in 2025.

Brent could average up to $115 per barrel this year if critical facilities suffer more damage and exports are slow to recover.

On Tuesday, Brent futures for June were trading at around $109 per barrel. On Monday, it had reached its highest close since April 7.

Fertilizers increase pressure on food

Fertilizers are expected to rise by 31% in 2026. Urea, the most widely used solid nitrogen fertilizer produced by converting natural gas into ammonia and carbon dioxide, is expected to jump by 60%.

This trend puts pressure on food supplies, reduces farmers’ incomes, and threatens upcoming harvests. The effect appears after the energy price hike and before a larger increase in inflation.

The World Food Programme estimates that an additional 45 million people could face acute food insecurity this year if the war is prolonged for an extended period.

Inflation and debt become heavier burdens

Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, stated that the war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first energy, then food, and finally, inflation.

With higher inflation, interest rates rise and debts become more expensive. The shock is expected to hit the poorest the hardest and worsen the problems of highly indebted developing countries.

In developing economies, average inflation is expected to reach 5.1% in 2026 in the baseline scenario. This figure exceeds last year’s 4.7% and is above pre-war forecasts.

If the conflict is prolonged, inflation in these countries could reach 5.8%. Growth is also expected to lose momentum, with an expected increase of 3.6% in 2026, below the 4% forecast before the war.

War maintains uncertainty over recovery

The trajectory of energy prices depends on the end of the most severe disruptions in May and the gradual normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by October.

Without this recovery, energy, fertilizers, food, inflation, interest rates, debts, and growth will remain under pressure, amplifying the impacts on consumers, farmers, and developing countries.

With information from Reuters.

Now: World Bank predicts a historic 24% rise in energy in 2026, with war in the Middle East blocking Hormuz and pressuring oil, fertilizers, and inflation.

World Bank projects a 24% rise in energy prices in 2026, with Brent crude at $86, more expensive fertilizers, and a risk of higher inflation in developing economies affected by the prolonged war

Energy prices face risk of further escalation

Strait of Hormuz is the focus of the oil shock

Fertilizers increase pressure on food

Inflation and debt become heavier burdens

War maintains uncertainty over recovery

The Soviet Union spent 22 years drilling into the Earth’s crust and reached a depth of 12,262 meters — they found water where it was thought impossible, hydrogen bubbling from the rock, granite that is 2.7 billion years old, and temperatures of 180 degrees that melted the drill bits.

Norway is drilling 27 kilometers of rock 392 meters below the bottom of a fjord to build the world’s largest and deepest underwater road tunnel — when completed, a 21-hour journey will be reduced to 10.

A German architect built a cylindrical house in 1994 that rotates to follow the sun throughout the day, generates 5 times more energy than it consumes, and was the world’s first energy-positive house.

A company that drilled for oil has drilled 4.8 kilometers of rock in Utah and found a never-ending heat of 290 degrees — now it is building the world’s first next-generation commercial geothermal power plant, with 100 MW connected to the grid in June 2026.

China has just successfully tested the world’s first ground effect maritime vehicle, a craft that flies up to 6 meters above the water at 200 km/h, uses quantum technology and 6G communication, and can rescue patients in the middle of the ocean.

Brazil spent R$ 1.9 billion on a giant bridge to Paraguay, and it is already finished, but no one can use it properly because the access points are not ready, and traffic remains blocked months later.

Equatorial Group achieves 2nd place in the IT Forum 2025 ranking and consolidates itself among the most innovative energy companies in the use of IT in Brazil, with a focus on digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and operational efficiency.

A wooden suspension bridge, world-famous for spectacular photos over the sea, simply disappears, leaving behind torn ropes and destroyed beams and transforming an iconic tourist spot into a scene of abandonment.

The enormous factory that marked the peak of the automotive industry in the United States produced vehicles for decades, was forgotten amidst urban decay, and met its definitive end with total demolition.

BRICS accelerates integration with the Global South, bringing together countries that already account for 30% of the world economy, one-fifth of trade, and more than half of global growth to expand markets, reduce barriers, and gain influence amid international instability.

BRICS accelerates integration with the Global South, bringing together countries that already account for 30% of the world economy, one-fifth of trade, and more than half of global growth to expand markets, reduce barriers, and gain influence amidst international instability.

Now: World Bank predicts a historic 24% rise in energy in 2026, with war in the Middle East blocking Hormuz and pressuring oil, fertilizers, and inflation.

World Bank projects a 24% rise in energy prices in 2026, with Brent crude at $86, more expensive fertilizers, and a risk of higher inflation in developing economies affected by the prolonged war

Energy prices face risk of further escalation

Strait of Hormuz is the focus of the oil shock

Fertilizers increase pressure on food

Inflation and debt become heavier burdens

War maintains uncertainty over recovery

The Soviet Union spent 22 years drilling into the Earth’s crust and reached a depth of 12,262 meters — they found water where it was thought impossible, hydrogen bubbling from the rock, granite that is 2.7 billion years old, and temperatures of 180 degrees that melted the drill bits.

Norway is drilling 27 kilometers of rock 392 meters below the bottom of a fjord to build the world’s largest and deepest underwater road tunnel — when completed, a 21-hour journey will be reduced to 10.

A German architect built a cylindrical house in 1994 that rotates to follow the sun throughout the day, generates 5 times more energy than it consumes, and was the world’s first energy-positive house.

A company that drilled for oil has drilled 4.8 kilometers of rock in Utah and found a never-ending heat of 290 degrees — now it is building the world’s first next-generation commercial geothermal power plant, with 100 MW connected to the grid in June 2026.

China has just successfully tested the world’s first ground effect maritime vehicle, a craft that flies up to 6 meters above the water at 200 km/h, uses quantum technology and 6G communication, and can rescue patients in the middle of the ocean.

Brazil spent R$ 1.9 billion on a giant bridge to Paraguay, and it is already finished, but no one can use it properly because the access points are not ready, and traffic remains blocked months later.

BRICS accelerates integration with the Global South, bringing together countries that already account for 30% of the world economy, one-fifth of trade, and more than half of global growth to expand markets, reduce barriers, and gain influence amid international instability.

BRICS accelerates integration with the Global South, bringing together countries that already account for 30% of the world economy, one-fifth of trade, and more than half of global growth to expand markets, reduce barriers, and gain influence amidst international instability.

Minimum wage of almost R$2,000 comes with a R$330 voucher, a R$110 bonus, and surprising exclusive benefits.

The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC on May 1st, putting pressure on Saudi Arabia as they aim for higher domestic production amid the war in the Middle East, in a move that shakes up the global oil market.

The United Arab Emirates broke with OPEC after more than 50 years, and the historic exit amid the crisis in the Middle East could reshape the global oil market and bring down the cartel’s power.

Equatorial Group achieves 2nd place in the IT Forum 2025 ranking and consolidates itself among the most innovative energy companies in the use of IT in Brazil, with a focus on digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and operational efficiency.

A wooden suspension bridge, world-famous for spectacular photos over the sea, simply disappears, leaving behind torn ropes and destroyed beams and transforming an iconic tourist spot into a scene of abandonment.

The enormous factory that marked the peak of the automotive industry in the United States produced vehicles for decades, was forgotten amidst urban decay, and met its definitive end with total demolition.

BRICS accelerates integration with the Global South, bringing together countries that already account for 30% of the world economy, one-fifth of trade, and more than half of global growth to expand markets, reduce barriers, and gain influence amid international instability.

BRICS accelerates integration with the Global South, bringing together countries that already account for 30% of the world economy, one-fifth of trade, and more than half of global growth to expand markets, reduce barriers, and gain influence amidst international instability.