The National Treasury expects the federal public debt to reach around R$6,8 trillion in 2023

The National Treasury has been predicting that the stock of federal public debt will reach the mark of 6,8 trillion reais in the year 2023, with possible stability in the debt installments that are due in up to 12 months.

This information is included in the 2023 Annual Financing Plan, which was released this Thursday (26).

As the Treasury's goal is for the federal public debt to end this year in the range of around 6,4 trillion reais to 6,8 trillion reais, shortly after ending December 2022 with around 5,591 trillion reais. 

However, the goal is that debt installments, due in 12 months, remain in the range of 19% to 23% in 2023, right after closing the previous year with more than 22%. Its target for the average debt term will still move to the ranges between 3,8 years and 4,2 years, shortly after the proportion closes in 2022 with 3,9 years. 

For the share of fixed-rate securities, which closed last year at 27%, it should still be in the range of 23% and 27%. The other securities that are pegged to the Selic will be between 38% and 42%, after the end of 2022 at more than 38,3%, according to the Treasury's projection. 

Shares that are linked to price indices will have a share of between 29% and 33% (30,3% in 2022), while securities linked to exchange rates will still remain between 3% and 7% ( 4,4% in 2022). 

Federal public debt rises 6% and reaches BRL 5,951 trillion in 2022

Reasons: 

According to the National Treasury, this debt growth of BRL 337,8 billion between 2021 and 2022 is also explained by the interest that the government had to assume in order to continue financing in the amount of BRL 556 billion. 

However, this value of interest appropriations was, to a certain extent, offset last year, made by the net redemption of R$ 218,2 billion in securities. 

Prediction: 

Even with the growth compared to 2021, the value of this public debt recorded in 2022 was well below the government's forecast. Since the expectations were that the debt ended last year, between R$ 6 trillion and R$ 6,4 trillion. 

In this assessment by the Treasury, the previous year was also marked by fluctuations in the national and international economic scenario, which had already influenced this planning and execution of the federal public debt. 

Due to these oscillations, according to Treasury assessments, there was still a frustration of demands for several longer bonds at times in the first quarter of 2022, which explains why the debt value did not reach the projected level. 

2023:  

For the year 2023, the National Treasury forecasts that this debt will end the year between R$6,4 trillion and R$6,8 trillion.