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The National Treasury forecasts that federal public debt stock will reach R$ 6.8 trillion in 2023, with possible stability in debt installments due in up to 12 months.
This information is included in the Annual Financing Plan for 2023, which was released on Thursday (26).
The Treasury’s goal is for federal public debt to end this year in the range of about R$ 6.4 trillion to R$ 6.8 trillion, shortly after closing December 2022 at around R$ 5.591 trillion.
However, the goal is for the debt maturing in 12 months to remain in the range of 19% to 23% in 2023, shortly after closing the previous year with over 22%. The average term target for the debt will also shift to the ranges of 3.8 years to 4.2 years, shortly after the ratio closed in 2022 at 3.9 years.
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For the share of fixed-rate securities, which closed last year at 27%, it should remain in the range of 23% to 27%. Meanwhile, other securities linked to the Selic rate will be between 38% and 42%, after closing 2022 with over 38.3%, according to the Treasury’s projection.
Securities linked to price indices will account for between 29% and 33% participation (30.3% in 2022), while those linked to currency will remain between 3% and 7% (4.4% in 2022).
Federal Public Debt Rises 6% and Reaches R$ 5.951 Trillion in 2022
Reasons:
According to the National Treasury, this growth in debt by R$ 337.8 billion between 2021 and 2022 is still explained by the interest that the government had to assume to continue financing in the amount of R$ 556 billion.
However, this amount of interest appropriations was, in a way, offset last year by a net redemption of R$ 218.2 billion in securities.
Forecast:
Even with the growth compared to 2021, the amount of public debt recorded in 2022 was well below the government’s projections. Expectations were that the debt would close last year between R$ 6 trillion and R$ 6.4 trillion.
In this assessment by the Treasury, the previous year was also marked by fluctuations in the national and international economic scenarios, which have influenced this planning and the execution of federal public debt.
Due to these fluctuations, according to the Treasury’s assessments, there were frustrations regarding demand for several longer-term securities at certain moments in the first quarter of 2022, which explains why the debt amount did not reach the projected figure.
2023:
For the year 2023, the National Treasury forecasts that this debt will close the year between R$ 6.4 trillion and R$ 6.8 trillion.
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