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Middle East Conflicts: Could Israel and Iran go to war? Understand why this has not yet happened and the factors that could prevent or facilitate such an escalation, including proxy wars, low-intensity conflicts, nuclear deterrence and regional alliances.
One of the most frequent questions I get is when Israel and Iran will engage in a conflict large-scale. And it is intriguing to note how the answer may be simpler than one might imagine. The geopolitical scenario between these two countries is complex and has been unfolding over the years, with tensions that, although they have not reached the level of a total war, keep the world on alert.
Although the conflict between Israel and Iran is a reality, with episodes of discussion panel direct and indirect, direct war has not yet broken out. The international community is closely monitoring these tensions, concerned about the global implications of an eventual conflict on a large scale. The situation between these two countries is a constant reminder of how fragile peace is and how war may be lurking, ready to erupt at any moment, requiring vigilance and diplomatic efforts to prevent it.
The Conflict Between Iran and Israel: An Indirect War
The clashes and conflicts between Iran and Israel that we have seen in recent times are part of an older conflict, a dynamic of indirect and veiled war, carried out by proxy, that is, by other allies, and not directly between the two countries. Although we have seen direct attacks by Iran on Israel and retaliations by Israel against Iran, the point is that the war already exists. The Middle East is experiencing a regional war low intensity, and the question is whether this war will become a direct high intensity war between Israel and Iran.
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The Obstacles to Total War
There are barriers, real obstacles, strategic and resource-based, that prevent the two from going into a direct, full-scale all-out war. One of these obstacles is the distance between the two countries, 1200 km from Israel to Iran, and 1.600 km from Jerusalem to Tehran. In addition, they do not have a border and there are several countries in between that do not want to get involved in the conflict.
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The Ceasefire between Israel and Rebola
With the ceasefire between Israel and the Rebola, it may seem that the possibility of an attack or a major war with Iran and Israel has diminished even further. However, it is important to remember that the Rebola agreed to this ceasefire precisely so that it can direct its resources and efforts against Iran, and not waste time with Iran's proxies or allies.
The Fundamental Arguments
There are other fundamental arguments that may prevent this war from becoming a major war. In addition to distance, there are other factors that need to be considered. It is important to understand these arguments in order to have a clear view of the conflict between Iran and Israel.
Source: ©️ Professor HOC
