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Petrobras Increases Production and Seeks New Reserves to Ensure Oil and Gas Supply for Another 12 Years

Written by Paulo Nogueira
Published on 29/01/2024 at 13:51
estatal, petroleira, AES Brasil, Atapu, B3, Bacia de Campos, Bacia de Santos, Bacia Potiguar, BloombergNEF, BM-POT-17, Braskem, Búzios, China, Eduardo Bartolomeo, Equinor, EUA, Foz do Amazonas, Gás natural, guerra em Israel, Guerra no Oriente Médio, Guido Mantega, Irã, Joe Biden, Maceió, Margem Equatorial, Petrobras, Petróleo, Pitu, POT-M-762, pré-sal, preço do petróleo, Raia (ex-BM-C-33), Reservas, Tupi, Vale
Fachada do edifício sede da Petrobras (Edise) na Avenida Chile, no Rio de Janeiro – Todos os direitos: EPBR
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Petrobras Closed 2023 with 10.9 Billion BOE; 84% Are Oil and 16% Natural Gas. New Advances in Oil and Gas, High Production, and Cost Reduction Boosted Market Value.

Petrobras is investing in new technologies to explore the oil and gas reserves it holds, thus ensuring its prominent position in the national and international market.

The state-owned oil company has been undergoing a series of changes to adapt to the global scenario, seeking to modernize and become more competitive. The shares of Petrobras in the market have been a topic of debate among experts and investors, who closely follow the company’s movements.

Petrobras Report on Oil Reserves

The state company Petrobras released information about its oil reserves indicating a supply sufficient for more than 12.2 years, maintaining the current level of production. According to the company, the closure of the year 2023 revealed an accumulation of 10.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), with 84% being oil and condensate, and 16% from natural gas.

  • The reserve criteria, defined by DeGolyer and MacNaughton (D&M), certifies the existing quantities according to the SEC criteria. The ANP/SPE standard, which considers extraction beyond current concession contracts, registers a total of 11.1 billion BOE.

With a net increase of 400 million BOE in reserves, the company announced an additional 1.5 billion BOE over 2023, disregarding the production of 900 million BOE and the divestment of 200 million BOE.

According to Petrobras, the next challenge is to maintain the increase in reserves, especially in the pre-salt, which is expected to enter decline in the next decade without new discoveries.

  • The company emphasized the importance of investing in maximizing the recovery factor and exploring new frontiers to replenish the reserves of oil and gas. The expectation is that, without new discoveries, oil production in the pre-salt will peak between 2029 and 2030, at 4.3 million barrels/day, and then decline.

Petrobras Focus on the Equatorial Margin

Petrobras’s major exploratory bet is in the Equatorial Margin, a coastal area that encompasses several basins, such as Foz do Amazonas, Pará-Maranhão, Barreirinhas, Ceará, and Potiguar.

So far, the company is facing opposition from Ibama, especially in the Foz do Amazonas, amid environmental hurdles that still lack a forecast for resolution.

Despite the difficulties in the Foz do Amazonas, Petrobras has made progress in exploring the Potiguar Basin, also located in the Equatorial Margin. The state-owned company completed the first drilling of the Pitu Oeste well, identifying the presence of hydrocarbons, although the evidence regarding economic viability remains inconclusive.

  • The next step is the second drilling in the Potiguar Basin, at the Anhangá well, in the POT-M-762 concession, which is scheduled for February and will mark another advance in exploring the region.

Geopolitics of Oil: War in the Middle East

As Petrobras focuses on its operations, the geopolitics of oil continues to influence markets, especially due to the new escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. A drone attack on a military base in Jordan, attributed to Iran, raised expectations of a more incisive U.S. involvement in the region’s conflicts.

  • The recent attacks have strained relations between the U.S. and Iran, which now face the threat of retaliation from American forces.
  • Additionally, Iran also supports the Houthis, responsible for attacks affecting cargo navigation in the Red Sea, further escalating tensions in the region.

Impacts of the Middle East on Oil Prices

A possible worsening of conflicts in the Middle East will contribute to further pressure on oil prices, which have already seen a significant rise in recent weeks, reaching levels of US$ 78.01 for WTI and US$ 83.55 for Brent in March. This recent price increase reflects not only geopolitical conflicts but also the economic performance of the U.S. and stimulus in China, resulting in a 6% rise in recent weeks.

Impact on the Energy Sector

The U.S. government, led by President Joe Biden, announced a temporary suspension of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects, under pressure from environmentalists, while assessing the impact of the LNG industry. This measure has significant implications for the global energy market, as the United States has stood out as a major LNG exporter in recent years.

  • On the other hand, China has recorded significant growth in installed solar energy, surpassing the record of 87.4 GW in 2022, with the installation of 216.9 GW of solar energy in 2023, exceeding the total current capacity of the United States, according to data from BloombergNEF.
  • Additionally, the French oil company TotalEnergies has submitted new licensing requests to Ibama for offshore wind farms, totaling 12.1 GW in installed capacity, further expanding the presence of renewable energies in the global energy sector.
  • At the same time, the renewable energy producer Qair and aircraft manufacturer Airbus signed a memorandum of understanding to identify commercial opportunities for synthetic fuels (e-SAF), produced from green hydrogen, emphasizing the importance of seeking more sustainable alternatives for the global energy matrix.

Source: EPBR

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Paulo Nogueira

Eletrotécnica formado em umas das instituições de ensino técnico do país, o Instituto Federal Fluminense - IFF ( Antigo CEFET), atuei diversos anos na áreas de petróleo e gás offshore, energia e construção. Hoje com mais de 8 mil publicações em revistas e blogs online sobre o setor de energia, o foco é prover informações em tempo real do mercado de empregabilidade do Brasil, macro e micro economia e empreendedorismo. Para dúvidas, sugestões e correções, entre em contato no e-mail informe@en.clickpetroleoegas.com.br. Vale lembrar que não aceitamos currículos neste contato.

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