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Abicom, The Association Representing Fuel Importers, Identified Opportunities for Price Reductions, According to Collected Data.
In recent days, the financial market has been paying attention to the possibility of Petrobras making a new cut in gasoline prices soon. Although it is not the most likely scenario for most economists, the expectation is that a cut could have a negative impact of 0.10 to 0.20 percentage points on the IPCA for 2023, depending on the magnitude of this reduction.
According to the median of the Focus Bulletin, which forecasts an inflation rate of 4.59% for this year, a cut in gasoline prices could allow for an IPCA between 4.39% and 4.49%. Analysts believe this would help the Central Bank achieve the inflation target set for this period.
Data from Abicom shows that there is room for gasoline price reductions, as the fuel was being sold at the same price as the foreign market on October 19. Additionally, Warren’s inflation strategist, Rena Andreã, has already included a 6% cut in gasoline prices in her projections, which led her to decrease her estimate for the IPCA for 2023.
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Finally, Petrobras executives state that the consolidation of international gasoline prices at a ‘different level’ could lead to a new adjustment in the future, although they have not yet anticipated a new price reduction. Still, experts believe that a cut in gasoline prices is possible, potentially reaching up to 10% and contributing to a decline in the IPCA for 2023.
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Source: Info Money
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