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While Abic Projects An Increase For The Consumer On The Shelves Due To Costs, Cepea/Esalq Registers A Strong Drop In The Value Of The Raw Material, Creating A Scenario Of Uncertainty In The Market.
The price of coffee is at the center of a deadlock that directly affects the Brazilian consumer’s wallet. On one side, the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic) warns of an imminent adjustment of up to 15% on supermarket shelves, justified by the rise in raw material costs for the industry. The information, reported by CNN, indicates that the new price has already been communicated to retailers and should reach the shelves in the coming days.
On the other hand, a study by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), from Esalq/USP, reveals a completely opposite movement in the field: a significant drop of up to 11.1% in the price of green coffee bean. This duality creates a scenario of uncertainty, where the pressure of costs from the industry collides with the devaluation of the raw material, leaving consumers and producers in a wait-and-see attitude to understand which force will prevail.
The Industry’s View: Why Coffee May Become More Expensive?
According to Abic’s president, Pavel Cardoso, in a press conference highlighted by CNN, passing on an increase of between 10% and 15% to supermarkets has become inevitable. The main reason is the rise in costs that industries have faced to acquire the beans in recent months. Celírio Inácio da Silva, the executive director of the entity, detailed that, as retail intensified its purchases in the second half of September, the expectation is that the new prices will already be a reality for consumers at the beginning of next month.
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This potential increase occurs in a context of already weakened consumption. Data from Abic itself shows that the accumulated price rise in 2025 resulted in a 5.41% reduction in sales of coffee in the Brazilian market between January and August, compared to the same period the previous year. In absolute numbers, the volume fell from 10.11 million to 9.56 million sacks. The association acknowledges that the increase was significant, with some types of coffee, such as instant coffee, accumulating increases of up to 50.59%, which explains the consumers’ caution.
The Counterpoint From The Field: Drop In The Price Of Green Coffee Bean
In a completely opposing direction, the Cepea/Esalq Indicator pointed out that, only in the week between September 15 and 22, the price of Arabica coffee type 6 dropped 10.2% in São Paulo, while Robusta fell 11.1%. According to the analysis released by CNN, this devaluation results from a combination of technical and climatic factors favoring a drop in the raw material’s quotation.
Among the reasons listed by Cepea are the expectation of more significant rains in Brazil’s main producing regions, which improves the outlook for the next harvest and increases supply. Additionally, there was a move of “profit taking” and liquidation of buying positions on the New York Stock Exchange, which means that investors who bet on the rise sold their contracts to secure gains, putting downward pressure on prices. The possibility that export tariffs to the United States will be lifted also contributes to this scenario of falling grain prices.
External Uncertainties And The U.S. Factor
The complexity of the scenario is not limited to the domestic market. The Brazilian coffee industry, according to CNN, is also navigating a sea of uncertainties regarding tariffs on exports of coffee beans to the United States. Brazil is the largest supplier of coffee to the North American market, which has imposed tariffs on Brazilian products as a form of political pressure linked to the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
However, an executive order from the U.S. government, published in early September, signaled that coffee may be exempt from new tariffs, as the country is not a significant producer of the bean. Pavel Cardoso from Abic expressed cautious optimism about this possibility. The expectation now turns to a possible meeting between presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump, which could seal the end of the tariffs and stabilize an important export front, influencing the entire pricing chain.
Given such conflicting forecasts, consumers find themselves caught in the middle, between the industrial cost pushing prices up and the devaluation of the beans in the field, which should make the final product cheaper.
Do you agree with this change? Do you think it impacts the market? Leave your opinion in the comments, we want to hear from those who live this in practice.
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