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With a 5.81% Increase in October, the Price of Meats Continues to Rise and Promises to Weigh on the Pockets of Brazilians This Year-End. Understand the Reasons and Projections for 2025.
If there is one thing Brazilians love, it’s that well-prepared barbecue on the weekend. But the joy of preparing famous picanha or a juicy rib is getting more and more expensive. The increase in meat prices in October was 5.81%, the largest rise in four years, even surpassing the average inflation of the last 12 months, which was 4.76%. And the projections for the coming months do not bring good news: the trend is that the cost of meats will rise even further.
Why Are Meat Prices Rising So Much?
The increase in meat prices is directly linked to the rising costs of cattle on farms, which have already accumulated a 33% increase in the last two months. This leap in costs occurs amid a severe drought that has harmed pastures, reducing the supply of animals for slaughter. And as the law of supply and demand doesn’t forgive, with less cattle available, prices inevitably rise.
The international scenario also plays an important role. Exports of Brazilian beef are on the rise, especially to the United States. With the devalued real, Brazil becomes an even more attractive destination for importers. This creates direct competition between the external market and domestic consumers, further pressuring meat prices here.
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Beef, Chicken, and Pork Prices Are Also Expected to Rise
The rise in meat prices is one of the factors that have weighed heavily on the overall inflation index. In October, the impact was so significant that it forced the Central Bank to raise the Selic rate to 11.25%, in an attempt to control the escalation of prices.
But what does this mean for your wallet? With beef prices skyrocketing, other sources of protein, such as chicken and pork, are also expected to become more expensive. This happens because, faced with the high price of beef, many consumers end up turning to cheaper options, which increases the demand and consequently the prices of these alternatives.
Unpromising Projections for 2025
If you think the current scenario is already complicated, projections for 2025 indicate that the increase in meat prices will be even more intense. It is estimated that the cost of beef will rise by up to 16.8% next year, while chicken and pork are expected to see increases of 11% and 13%, respectively.
This means that barbecue, which is already a burden on the budget, may become a real luxury. And that’s not all: the projected inflation for 2025 is around 4%, but food prices are expected to rise more than 7.4%, mainly driven by meats. If the forecasts come true, we will be facing the largest increase in meat prices in five years, since the record high of 17.97% in 2020.
What Is Behind the 2025 Scenario?
Several factors contribute to the projections for rising meat prices in 2025. Among them, the combination of a stronger dollar—which increases the cost of inputs for feed production, for example—and the restricted supply of cattle in the domestic market. The strengthening of the dollar also impacts the import costs of machinery and technology for the agricultural sector, further increasing production costs.
Another critical point is the climate. The severe drought that affected pastures in 2023 may repeat itself in the coming years, creating a scenario of uncertainty and volatility in prices. The lack of rain not only harms the quality of pastures but also reduces farm productivity, making it difficult to replenish cattle stocks.
The Future of Meat in Brazil
Although projections show a challenging scenario, it is important to remember that the meat market in Brazil is highly dynamic. Measures such as expanding irrigated pastures and investing in technology to improve productivity can help reduce costs in the medium and long term.
However, while these solutions do not become a reality, consumers will need to adapt to the new normal of prices. With the increase in meat prices putting pressure on inflation, the challenge will be to balance quality food with budget control.
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