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A Clean And Constant Energy Source Could Gain Ground In The United States In The Coming Years. Enhanced Geothermal Systems Using The Earth’s Heat Have The Potential To Supply A Large Part Of The National Electric Grid, According To A New Study.
A previously underexplored technology could change the course of the energy matrix in the United States. This technology is enhanced geothermal systems, also known as EGS.
They utilize the Earth’s underground heat to generate electricity, and according to a new analysis from Princeton University, they could account for up to 20% of the country’s electricity by 2050.
The study was published in the scientific Joule journal and suggests that, with the reduction of installation costs—a common trend in new technologies—enhanced geothermal systems could become the third major source of clean energy, behind only solar and wind.
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The estimate is that over 250 gigawatts of installed capacity could be reached by 2050 in a favorable cost scenario.
In comparison, the current electric grid in the United States has about 1,200 gigawatts of capacity.
Impact Of Public Policies On Expansion
If there are bolder federal policies, such as the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, even the highest cost scenarios indicate that the country could install more than 500 gigawatts of enhanced geothermal energy by the same year.
This would include regions historically viewed as unviable for this type of energy source, such as areas east of the Mississippi River.
Wilson Ricks, a postdoctoral researcher at the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment and the lead author of the study, states that policymakers need to take the technology seriously.
According to him, with support from the Inflation Reduction Act, EGS could become a relevant part of power generation across the United States.
How Enhanced Geothermal Systems Work
The technology is based on deep drilling into the ground, through hot, hard, and impermeable rocks. These drillings create an underground reservoir where cold fluid is injected through a well. This fluid travels through the reservoir, heats up, and is then extracted through another well. The hot fluid drives a turbine, generating electricity.
The difference from conventional geothermal energy lies in flexibility. While the traditional version relies on naturally heated reservoirs—like The Geysers field in California—the enhanced version can be deployed anywhere with hot rocks close to the surface.
Lack Of Data Delayed Development
Despite the great potential, enhanced geothermal systems were neglected for years. This happened because the first commercial pilot project in theUnited States only recently became operational. Furthermore, costs are still difficult to predict.
They depend both on drilling technology and the local geological characteristics, such as the depth and temperature of the rocks.
Wilson Ricks explains that, unlike solar energy, it is not possible to use satellite images to choose ideal locations. It is necessary to investigate the subsurface directly to confirm thermal viability.
Advantages Over Other Clean Technologies
Enhanced geothermal systems may have an easier path to market compared to alternatives like advanced nuclear energy or carbon capture technologies.
This is because it can start being used where there are better thermal resources, reducing the initial installation cost.
Like all new technologies, the first projects tend to be expensive. However, over time, costs decrease with the learning curve. As companies gain experience and improve methods, construction prices fall.
Additionally, the cost of EGS depends on the depth of the hot rocks. The closer they are to the surface, the cheaper the process. This favors areas in the western U.S.
In contrast, the eastern part, where hot rocks are deeper, requires greater investments.
First Projects Should Guide Expansion
The proposal is for the first projects to be implemented in regions with the best geological conditions. This would help offset high initial costs and open the door for the commercial expansion of the technology throughout the North American landscape.
Even if current political support is revoked, research shows that enhanced geothermal systems could still have a market in the western U.S.
However, the authors caution that federal government support will be essential for the technology to become relevant on a national scale.
Jesse Jenkins, an associate professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering, emphasizes that federal support has the greatest impact at the beginning of the learning curve when costs are still high.
This support could determine whether EGS becomes commercially viable on a large scale.
Models Become More Reliable
Although researchers have made some assumptions about the EGS learning rate, they assert that their analysis is the most robust and data-driven conducted so far.
The study will be refined as more information is gathered on the actual costs of the technology and the underground temperatures in various regions of the country.
Wilson Ricks reinforces that the reality of enhanced geothermal systems is changing. “For a long time, there were models, simulations, and theory. Now, there is real steam coming out of the ground,” he stated.
He reminds that there are already operational pilot projects and that plants with a capacity of 100 megawatts are expected to be inaugurated soon.
With more data, more practical experience, and ongoing government support, enhanced geothermal energy could move from a distant promise to a key player in the energy transition of the United States in the coming decades.
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