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Scientists predict that the Sun could trigger a solar flare of unimaginable proportions within the next 100 years, with energy comparable to billions of atomic bombs, causing global impacts.
In the next hundred years, our Sun could produce a solar flare as devastating as the combined forces of billions of atomic bombs.
Although the sun usually emits smaller flares, there is evidence that events extraordinarily energetic, known as superflares, are more frequent than scientists initially imagined.
New discoveries about superflares on the sun
Um recent study, based on observations of Sun-like stars, revealed that these extreme explosions occur, on average, once every 100 years.
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This discovery surprised scientists, who previously believed that superflares occurred at much longer intervals.
"We were very surprised that Sun-like stars are prone to such frequent superflares.”, said Valeriy Vasilyev, lead author of the study, led by the Max Planck Society (MPS).
Superflares are incredibly powerful solar storms that have the potential to wreak havoc on Earth. They could disable electronics, destroy data, knock out satellites and even put astronauts at risk.
How Scientists Study Superflares
To understand these events, researchers looked at stars similar to our Sun.
Using data from NASA's Kepler space telescope, they monitored the brightness of thousands of stars between 2009 and 2013. Sudden changes in brightness indicate the occurrence of superflares.
The team analyzed data from 56.450 stars and found evidence of 2.889 superflares from 2.527 of them. Based on this analysis, the scientists concluded that stars like the Sun produce a superflare every century, on average.
Sami Solanki, director of MPS and co-author of the study, explained: “We can’t observe the Sun for thousands of years. Instead, we monitor Sun-like stars for short periods, which helps us estimate the frequency of superflares.”".
These explosions release more than an octillion joules of energy in a very short interval, which would be devastating to our planet.
The Carrington Event
While scientists cannot predict when the next superflare will occur, history provides a glimpse into its potential impact.
In 1859, the Carrington Event caused a solar storm that affected telegraph systems around the world.
The energy released was so massive that its impact is compared to that of “10 billion 1 megaton atomic bombs".
Studies of Earth's past have revealed other extreme events of solar activity, which have left their mark on natural records such as tree rings and ice sheets.
Using carbon-14 analysis, scientists have identified five major events in the past 12.000 years. This suggests that extreme solar flares occur, on average, once every 1.500 years.
However, the new study points to a higher frequency, indicating that events like Carrington could happen every 100 years.
Implications
If a supereruption were to hit Earth, its consequences could be devastating.
Electrical systems and communications networks would be at risk, causing widespread damage in a world increasingly dependent on technology.
To mitigate these risks, it is crucial to continue monitoring the Sun and studying ways to protect our critical systems.
Alexander Shapiro from the University of Graz highlighted the importance of the collected data: “In their totality, the Kepler data provide us with evidence of 220.000 years of stellar activity.” This information is vital for predicting the behavior of the Sun.
Finally, Natalie Krivova, co-author of the study, emphasized: “The new data are a clear reminder that even the most extreme solar events are part of the Sun's natural repertoire.”
As research advances, scientists hope to better understand these phenomena and prepare humanity for the impact of an extreme solar event.
After all, it's only a matter of time before the next superflare happens.
